313
FXUS64 KOUN 221109
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
509 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 506 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING
ALONG WITH A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.
- TURNING COOLER TOWARDS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
COOL SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT MAKING FOR A PLEASANT DAY, ALBEIT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION BEING NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER, AT LEAST BY MID-MORNING, AND LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES BY AFTERNOON.
FARTHER EAST COULD SEE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING
INTO POSSIBLY MIDDAY, DELAYING THE DAYTIME WARM UP. MAINLY 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR STRUGGLE WITH TIMING OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH EJECTING
THE LOW, BRINGING IT INTO TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY
AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW VERY
LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, AND
WITH LOW LEVEL JET WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS WEST TEXAS,
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND MUCH OF THE PRECIP MAY EVEN
HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
MAIN UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO TREK NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING, WITH A RATHER LARGE DRY SLOT ACROSS WEST
TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. THIS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AS A PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA
DEVELOPING IN THAT SAME AREA SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
RAIN CHANCES END EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS THE WEST, BUT COULD
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AS STORM SYSTEM
EXITS TO THE EAST, A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME ACTUAL COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER HARD FREEZE WILL LIKELY OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. MAINLY LOW/MID 50S EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOR HIGHS
WITH SOME REBOUND IN TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOL SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS, WHICH COULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY, AND A
FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING AS WE END THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
STRATUS HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH MVFR (SOMETIMES IFR)
CEILINGS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINS ARE MAINLY LIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY, THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
TONIGHT.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 60 42 64 52 / 0 0 30 90
HOBART OK 65 39 64 50 / 0 0 70 70
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 42 67 53 / 0 0 70 90
GAGE OK 64 37 62 45 / 0 0 70 40
PONCA CITY OK 60 39 64 50 / 0 0 0 80
DURANT OK 65 45 67 54 / 0 0 10 90
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14
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