695
FXUS64 KOUN 230448
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
- RAINFALL IS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALONG WITH A RISK OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
- TURNING COOLER TOWARDS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
STRATUS CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MUCH LOWER THAN THE
SURROUNDING LOCATIONS (IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S DEG F). THE
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR (I.E., LOW SUN ANGLE AND SHORTER DAYS), STRATUS USUALLY HAS
AN APPRECIABLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY WITH MINIMAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION). AS A RESULT, WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN
CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO REMAIN IN THE 50S DEG F.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S DEG F.
BY TONIGHT, LIGHT AND WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG. IT'LL BE
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S DEG F.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
A CLOSED-LOW ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT INTO
THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OVERALL, THE TREND HAS BEEN
TOWARD A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WITH MOST LOCATIONS
LIKELY REMAINING DRY DURING MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE WARM CONVEYER BELT
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH RAIN
MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIMITED/NEAR ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 300 TO
800 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY RESULT IN SOME STRONGER TO
LOW-END SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING HAIL.
GENERALLY 0.10 TO 0.50" OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF I-44 WITH 0.50 TO 2" SOUTHEAST OF I-44 (WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE). LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN SOME
FLOODING RISK--PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DRY SLOT, WHICH COULD QUICKLY
CUTOFF RAINFALL NORTHWEST OF I-44. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE MOST REASONABLE DRIEST SCENARIO (E.G., IF THE DRY
SLOT IS SIGNIFICANT WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL) WILL BE A TRACE TO A
0.10" NORTHWEST OF I-44 AND 0.10 TO 1" SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
THEREFORE, EVEN WITH A STRONG DRY SLOT, APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS
STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
RAIN CHANCES END EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS THE WEST, BUT COULD
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AS STORM SYSTEM
EXITS TO THE EAST, A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME ACTUAL COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER HARD FREEZE WILL LIKELY OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. MAINLY LOW/MID 50S EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOR HIGHS
WITH SOME REBOUND IN TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOL SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS, WHICH COULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY, AND A
FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING AS WE END THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN VERY LOW VISIBILITIES ARE HIGHEST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST HAVE SOME POTENTIAL, BUT CONFIDENCE IN PUTTING LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAF ARE LOW. LIGHT RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 41 64 52 / 0 0 10 80
HOBART OK 65 39 65 50 / 0 0 70 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 42 67 54 / 0 0 50 90
GAGE OK 64 37 63 44 / 0 0 70 20
PONCA CITY OK 60 39 64 50 / 0 0 0 70
DURANT OK 65 44 68 54 / 0 0 10 90
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page