527
FXUS64 KOUN 240607
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1207 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1205 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.
- TURNING COOLER TOWARDS MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.
- MUCH COLDER WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
LIFT FROM UPPER WAVE AND STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE TO AID PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST THIRD/HALF OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY BEFORE THINGS GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME AREAS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE IT COMES TO AN END.
FARTHER NORTH, SOME WRAP-AROUND PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
OTHERWISE, MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FOG,
SOME OF WHICH COULD BE DENSE AND MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
EARLY TUESDAY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT. HOWEVER AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE SOME FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
44 BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA HAVING ANOTHER HARD
FREEZE.
COOLER DAY ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COOLER SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PLAINS FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST BY FRIDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING. THIS WILL DRAW GULF MOISTURE QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND WITH
STRONG WAA EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS WAA PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS WERE
SIMILAR LAST NIGHT WITH TIMING OF VERY COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER THE LATEST GFS IS NOT BRINGING THE
FRONT THROUGH UNTIL NEXT MONDAY AND NOT AS STRONG. IN ADDITION THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING TO A MORE CLOSED, RETROGRADING UPPER LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS IS ALL LOWING OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT DO CURRENTLY DO HAVE A
MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP BY SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO
THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AREAS OF FOG, POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG
WILL OVERSPREAD OF WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEHIND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE IN TOMORROW. WRAP AROUND STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS STRATUS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 46 61 34 / 20 0 0 0
HOBART OK 69 41 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 45 69 36 / 20 0 0 0
GAGE OK 62 37 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 61 46 60 30 / 50 10 0 0
DURANT OK 67 49 67 40 / 90 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...13
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