284
FXUS64 KOUN 250416
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1016 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1015 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
- DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG COULD LINGER OVER NORTHERN AND EAST-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT.
- TURNING COOLER MID-WEEK WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK.
- COLDER WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EXIT OUR CWA THIS EVENING WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. DRIZZLE, LIGHT
RAIN, AND PATCHY FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TONIGHT, WITH PATCHY
FOG REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER-30'S
OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO LOW 50'S OVER EAST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY MORNING OVER PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME LOCALIZED DENSE FOG COULD ALSO BE
SEEN. HOWEVER, THIS AREA OF FOG APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OTHER THAN THE MORNING
FOG, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW.
A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO AND MONTANA,
DEEPENS UPON REACHING THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW BEFORE
TURNING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
PUSH A DECENT COLD FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE FRONT. THIS SURGE OF POST-FRONTAL WINDS REACHES CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MORNING. WHILE A FEW OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST FALLING TEMPERATURES WITH FROPA IN THE MORNING HOURS, MOST
CAMS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-50'S TO MID-60'S.
AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WILL SEE
COLD TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
MID-/UPPER-40'S OVER NORTHERN AND PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VEERING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20'S AND 30'S BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PLAINS FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST BY FRIDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING. THIS WILL DRAW GULF MOISTURE QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND WITH
STRONG WAA EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS WAA PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS WERE
SIMILAR LAST NIGHT WITH TIMING OF VERY COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER THE LATEST GFS IS NOT BRINGING THE
FRONT THROUGH UNTIL NEXT MONDAY AND NOT AS STRONG. IN ADDITION THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING TO A MORE CLOSED, RETROGRADING UPPER LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS IS ALL LOWING OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT DO CURRENTLY DO HAVE A
MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP BY SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
BECOME GUSTY BY THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
RELAX BY SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 47 60 34 / 30 0 0 0
HOBART OK 67 40 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 45 66 36 / 30 0 0 0
GAGE OK 60 36 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 58 47 58 29 / 60 20 0 0
DURANT OK 63 50 63 39 / 90 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
020-026-030>032-040>043-046>048-050>052.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...13
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