401
FXUS64 KOUN 251639
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1039 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1036 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
- PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-
LIVED.
- TURNING COOLER MID-WEEK WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK.
- PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND WITH COLDER AIR AND PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE, INCLUDING A LOW CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT. AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 ARE AT
OR NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY WITH SEVERAL OBSERVATION SITES IN THIS
AREA ALREADY SHOWING REDUCED VISIBILITIES (INCLUDING A FEW 1/4 MILE
READINGS). AS STRATUS CLEARS FROM THE WEST, RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL HELP TO ENHANCE FOG FORMATION ALONG THE STRATUS EDGE.
HOWEVER, WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ADVECTING DRIER AIR IN, SO FOG
WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED (WE'VE SEEN THIS PATTERN ALREADY IN
LOCATIONS LIKE PAULS VALLEY AND ARDMORE). WE MAY BE ABLE TO START
TRIMMING PARTS OF OUR CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, BRINGING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH (GUSTING TO 30 MPH) BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S (NW
OK) TO MID 30S (NORTH TX AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK), THOUGH EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR A LOT OF LOCAL VARIATION IN
TEMPERATURES (I.E. DON'T BE SURPRISED IF YOU SEE LOCAL TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST).
DAY
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT, LEAVING
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE MID 20S TO MID 30S, PLUS VARIATIONS DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THURSDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS, BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER (~ +5
DEGREES) TEMPERATURES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SUNNY, BUT COOL
THANKSGIVING WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DAY
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPTIC UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE GET TO LATE WEEK. MODELS DEPICT
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SATURDAY (HIGH
VARIANCE IN TIMING, DEPTH, AND NORTH-SOUTH POSITION), WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION STARTING UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WITH THE WAA, WE'LL SEE
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY
OVER SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
INTERQUARTILE RANGES FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
APPROACH 20-30 DEGREES, LARGELY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT TIMING
DIFFERENCES (24-48 HOURS) IN THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT CONTINUING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE. CURRENTLY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 10-20% CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
DAY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
A FEW LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO HAVE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS LATE THIS
MORNING. THESE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE/DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO PARTS OF OK
THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NW/N WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER LATER TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO START TO SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE S
WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 34 50 32 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 65 31 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 35 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 58 27 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 29 49 29 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 66 37 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...25
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