124
FXUS64 KOUN 260616
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1216 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
- COOL AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LIKELY AND A LOW CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING THIS MORNING'S LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S (NW OK) TO THE MID 30S (SOUTH CENTRAL OK AND NORTH
TX).
THE DAY WILL BE MARKED BY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S, LIGHT
WINDS, AND SOME CIRRUS. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE, PLUS IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY MORNING.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE MARKED BY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS, AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON
FRIDAY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL INTERRUPT THE WARMING TREND,
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S (2-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY). RAIN CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION, AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS
MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF.
DAY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, RESULTING IN LIKELY
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. MOST AREAS
(ESPECIALLY SOUTH) WILL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S DUE TO THIS SOUTHERLY FETCH OF WARM AIR. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE CUT OFF BY AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY.
AS PRECIPITATION EXITS SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, COLDER AIR WILL
FILL IN BEHIND BRINGING SUNDAY MORNING LOWS DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND
20S. WIND CHILLS LOOK TO FALL AS LOW AS SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
INITIAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY AND RESULTANT TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY, SETTLING IN ON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS COLD, RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, OVERALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LIMITED TO 20-30% FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BOTH REMAIN POSSIBILITIES, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEING IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THAT SAID, THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SECOND WAVE COMING THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK, SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
WITH THIS BEING A HOLIDAY WEEKEND, HERE'S THE DAY BY DAY BREAKDOWN
OF POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS:
- SATURDAY: MINIMAL IMPACTS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT WEST TO EAST WELL BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FILL IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING.
- SUNDAY: DAYTIME IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL AS PRECIP CHANCES ARE LESS
THAN 10%. MINOR IMPACTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS POPS INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT, YIELDING 10% CHANCE FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IN AREAS GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF I-44. FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA PRECIP WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT SNOW
(20-30% CHANCE).
- MONDAY: TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAK
AT 20-40%. SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHWEST
(30% FOR 1"+). FREEZING RAIN PROBABILITIES ARE SPREAD OVER A
LARGER AREA WITH THE 10-15% AXIS CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF
I-44.
DAY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH THERE
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BECOME LIGHT AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES LATE ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 50 32 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 53 30 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 54 34 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 52 26 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 49 29 52 31 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 55 33 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...26
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