251
FXUS64 KOUN 261818
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1218 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
- COOL AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
- A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY, BRINGING
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW
CHANCES (20-30%) FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON, MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST, BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TONIGHT MAKING WAY FOR A
SEASONABLY COOL BUT SUNNY THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EXPECTED.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING AND BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN DRIZZLE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S IN MOST SPOTS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY.
EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES BY SUNDAY
MORNING. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE AREA
WELL AHEAD OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES, PRECLUDING CHANCES FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD, WITH SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY BUT COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PERIOD CLOSELY FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND AMPLITUDE
OF THE WAVE, WITH MOST MEMBERS NOW SHOWING FAIRLY LIGHT (OR NO)
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, A SMALL MINORITY OF
MODELS (~25%) CONTINUE TO HANG ON TO THE IDEA OF A STRONGER SYSTEM
WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE AREA (REASONABLE WORST CASE
SNOWFALL OF CLOSE TO 6" ACROSS NORTHWEST OK AND 2-4" INTO OKC
METRO). WHILE THESE SOLUTIONS ARE UNLIKELY, THEY ILLUSTRATE THAT
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DURING THIS PERIOD AND THINGS COULD STILL
CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST. AS OF NOW, WILL STICK TO THE MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO, FORECASTING A 20-30% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH RAIN CLOSER TO THE
RED RIVER. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OK WHERE THE MEAN NBM SHOWS CLOSE TO 1" OF ACCUMULATION.
PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING ICE OVER OUR AREA APPEAR VERY LOW AT
THIS TIME. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN LOW TO MID 30S FOR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK, WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 40 NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD BY TUESDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN US LATER NEXT WEEK, BUT MODEL
SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE BY THIS TIME SO IMPACTS (IF ANY) TO
OUR AREA REMAIN UNCLEAR.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
BY THURSDAY MORNING. VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 32 54 34 52 / 0 0 0 20
HOBART OK 29 58 34 54 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 33 59 37 56 / 0 0 0 20
GAGE OK 26 56 31 53 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 30 53 30 52 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 36 58 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...01
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page