922
FXUS64 KOUN 271115
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
515 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 513 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
- COOL AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
- A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY, BRINGING
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW
CHANCES (20-30%) FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
TODAY WE ARE THANKFUL FOR A SUNNY THANKSGIVING WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES (50S) AND LIGHT WINDS.
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO RAMP UP, WE'LL SEE CLOUDS INVADE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY'S WEATHER WILL BE MARKED BY AN APPROACHING
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION.
FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BREEZY WINDS. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY
AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
BY SATURDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE REACHED 60-80% OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING WEST TO EAST.
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SOME WARMING DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FETCH OF WARM, MOIST AIR WHILE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL SEE
HIGHS CUT OFF IN THE 40S AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDED BY THE TIME FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAKE
THEIR WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AND WIND
CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS / TEENS.
DAY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE EARLY WEEK SYNOPTIC SETUP AND SUNDAY/MONDAY'S POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER. I'LL ADDRESS THE TWO POTENTIAL IMPACTS (COLD AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION) IN TURN:
COLD: CONFIDENCE IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IS HIGH FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BOTH
MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. IT'S NOT EXTREME COLD, BUT
ENOUGH OF A SHARP DROP TO BE IMPACTFUL.
WINTRY PRECIPITATION: FORECAST IS TRENDING LATER WITH SLIGHTLY
REDUCED POPS, KEEPING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING MOSTLY DRY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING TO 20-30% STARTING EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SNOW CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHWEST (30% CHANCE
OF 1"+), DECREASING SOUTHEAST. FREEZING RAIN CHANCES HAVE COME DOWN
TO LESS THAN 10%. A REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO (90TH PERCENTILE)
WOULD HAVE UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA DOWN TO 0.5
INCHES ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR.
TUESDAY, THINGS BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN US LATER
NEXT WEEK, BUT MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE BY THIS TIME SO
IMPACTS (IF ANY) TO OUR AREA REMAIN UNCLEAR.
DAY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TODAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 35 53 44 / 0 0 10 50
HOBART OK 57 34 54 45 / 0 0 10 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 59 38 57 48 / 0 0 20 50
GAGE OK 56 31 53 40 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 53 31 53 42 / 0 0 0 60
DURANT OK 58 35 57 45 / 0 0 0 90
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30
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