171
FXUS64 KOUN 271841
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1237 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
- COOL AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
-A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY, BRINGING
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW
CHANCES (20-30%) FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS, AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT SYSTEM, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF HIGH CIRRUS. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY EVENING AS FORCING
STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH.
RAIN SHOWERS (WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES) WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
LATEST MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIGHTLY, BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED,
AT LEAST FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL TUMBLE INTO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
MUCH OF SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AS NORTHERLY WINDS AND
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
IN THE MORNING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM,
WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DEPICTING A WEAKER AND POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. ASSOCIATED LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER WEAK BUT APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN 20-30% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY, WITH A DUSTING TO UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED SPOTS. FURTHER SOUTH, 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON,
SO ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY FALL AS RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX, THOUGH
AMOUNTS APPEAR VERY LIGHT AND ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY. PATTERN
RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THERE IS ALSO A LOW POTENTIAL (20%
CHANCE) FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND AT LEAST WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION.
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDING AS OF YET,
BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO STRUGGLE WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE
SCENARIOS IN THE PAST SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.
THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT PREDOMINANTLY TO THE SOUTH
AND BECOME GUSTY ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING STRATUS
(~5-7KFT).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 36 51 45 58 / 0 10 40 50
HOBART OK 36 51 46 57 / 0 10 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 38 54 48 67 / 0 20 50 30
GAGE OK 33 51 40 46 / 0 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 31 51 43 50 / 0 10 50 70
DURANT OK 36 54 45 61 / 0 10 90 80
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...01
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