258
FXUS64 KOUN 280618
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1218 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
-A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF ROCKIES AS A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN STRATUS
CLOUD WITH OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN
YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN 50S DEG F EVEN WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
WITH INCREASING ASCENT, AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
TEXAS.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN TANDEM WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
JET (~55 TO 60 KNOTS). THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WITH LESS COVERAGE TO THE NORTHWEST. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
TEXAS, WHERE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.
THE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ADVANCE A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY MORNING
AND WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST, THE
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS DECREASING WITH TIME
SATURDAY MORNING (THOUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES BY AS THEY'LL REMAIN
WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYER BELT).
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON
WITH THE AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM CANADA (TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS
MORNING). STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
AND 30 TO 40 KNOT 925 TO 850 MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED SATURDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL END WELL BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
FREEZING, SO WINTER PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
WIND CHILLS VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S DEG F BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, MAKING FOR THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2025
SUNDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND
20S DEG F AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S DEG F. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHTER NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A POSITIVELY-TILED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO KANSAS. SYNOPTIC-
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING SNOW. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH DECREASING CHANCES
WITH SOUTHEAST EXTENT.
CURRENTLY, THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE (I.E., NEAR THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER) ISN'T FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
EVENT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL ACROSS
KANSAS. NEVERTHELESS, LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF OKLAHOMA WITH A LOW (30%) CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1" OF
ACCUMULATION. IF THE TRACK SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTHEAST, THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS MORE
LIKELY TO THE SOUTHEAST (NEAR I-44 TO THE SOUTHEAST) WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES. ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS,
THE DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD. THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING AS WELL.
THE KDUA AWOS CONTINUES TO REPORT REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SOMETIMES
LOW VERTICAL VISIBILITIES THAT APPEARS TO BE A SENSOR ISSUE AS
OPPOSED TO METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, AND HAVE MAINTAINED A VFR
FORECAST IN THE KDUA TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 36 54 45 / 0 0 10 40
HOBART OK 57 36 54 46 / 0 0 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 39 57 49 / 0 0 20 40
GAGE OK 56 32 55 40 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 54 32 54 43 / 0 0 0 50
DURANT OK 59 37 58 45 / 0 0 10 80
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...26
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