531
FXUS64 KOUN 281827
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1227 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
-A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA SHOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
THICKEN AND CEILINGS LOWERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA, WITH RADAR SHOWING LIGHT ECHOES EXPANDING OUT OF
SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NTX. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE
AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OK WITH A DRYSLOT QUICKLY SHUTTING OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN ~500 J/KG OF MUCAPE, CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF I-44. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AS AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
EASTWARD OVERHEAD. THESE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED MIXING WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN 40S TO LOW 50S.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL POISED TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, PUSHED ALONG BY A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS AND STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF ~1040 MB CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY, WITH RAIN SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING
ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF TO 2/3RDS OF THE
AREA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS THEN SLOWLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK COLD BUT DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EVEN WITH SUNSHINE HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY
REACH INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN CONTINUED
NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT QUICK MOVING SYSTEM.
WARE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY LIGHT AND IMPACTS APPEAR RATHER MINIMAL AT
THIS TIME. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND KS BY MONDAY
EVENING. THIS TRACK PLACES THE BULK OF THE FORCING TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST, WHICH IS WHERE THE MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
FORECAST, BUT LOW CHANCES (20-30%) REMAIN FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A
DUSTING TO AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF THE AREA. FARTHER
SOUTH, FORCING WILL BE EVEN WEAKER AND AMOUNTS EVEN LOWER, ONLY A
TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF QPF. DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES,
COULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
CENTRAL OK MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, SO WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR THIS, BUT AS OF NOW AMOUNTS APPEAR TOO LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES TOO MARGINAL TO CAUSE MUCH IMPACT. PRECIPITATION WILL
QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA MONDAY EVENING, WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
(TEENS/20S) EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGE (40S/50S) FOR HIGHS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, WITH ANOTHER
FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. AS OF NOW THE AIRMASS
DOES NOT APPEAR AS COLD AS THE ONE SLATED FOR THIS WEEKEND AND
APPEARS TO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING IT.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING TO INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. EXPECT STRONG LLWS (40 TO 55 KTS) BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
DECREASING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
THERE ARE MEDIUM TO MEDIUM-HIGH PROBABILITIES (50% TO 80%) OF LIFR
CONDITIONS FOR KCSM, KOKC, KOUN, KLAW LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT RELATIVELY QUICKLY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
THOMPSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 46 59 24 37 / 30 60 0 0
HOBART OK 47 59 23 40 / 30 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 49 68 26 43 / 40 20 0 0
GAGE OK 41 45 18 36 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 45 53 21 36 / 40 60 0 0
DURANT OK 46 61 28 43 / 80 70 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ004>007-
009>012-014>018-021>024-034-035.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...01
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