083
FXUS63 KPAH 141742
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1142 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER ULTIMATELY RETURNS AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES RUN NEAR, THEN ABOVE, SEASONAL NORMALS,
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST.
- A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS APPEARS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE NOV 23-24 WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
OUR RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE TODAY,
EFFECTIVELY ENDING RAIN CHANCES BY/BEFORE MIDDAY.
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE MAY LINGER TIL THEN AND COULD BE STUBBORN TO
FULLY BREAK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER HEIGHT RISES DO EVENTUALLY WIN
OUT THEREAFTER, AS DRIER AIR WORKS ACROSS THE FA. WE'LL BE
DOMINATED BY THIS HIGH PRESSURE REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO AFTER A COUPLE POST STORM SYSTEM DAYS
OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS, WE'LL SEE THE MERCURY REBOUND THROUGH THE
60S AND 40S TO AROUND 70 WITH SOME 50S LOWS FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NEW WEEK.
BIG PATTERN CHANGES COMMENCE THEREAFTER. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG
WAVE TROF ENGULFS THE COUNTRY'S MID SECTION BY MID WEEK, AND ITS
INFLUENCE WILL BE INCOMING HERE, RESULTING IN OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PCPN BY DAYS 5-7 OF THE FORECAST. AS THE DEEP BARRELLED LOW(S)
APPROACH, HEIGHTS FALL AND A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS LOOKS
POSITIONED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO/ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. WE'LL
SEE THOSE HIGHS NEAR 70 EARLY IN THE WEEK FALL BACK INTO THE 50S
BY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES
TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK AS THE HEART OF THE MEAN LONG WAVE
MIGRATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD
ACROSS US.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT, POSSIBLY EXTENDING
INTO FRIDAY AS TIME-HEIGHTS AND POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW
MOISTURE LINGERING. MOSTLY MVFR EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES, ALTHOUGH
A FEW BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY
BREAKS WOULD BE BRIEF. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SCATTER FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...AD
AVIATION...AD
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