321
FXUS63 KPAH 150508
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1108 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WHILE DRY WEATHER HAS RETURNED, CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
OUT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES RUN NEAR, THEN ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST.
- A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS APPEARS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE NOV 23-24 WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
THE QUAD STATE IS UNDER THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF A H50 JET
STREAK NOSING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AT THIS TIME WITH A NW
WIND FILTERING IN DRIER AIR. SHALLOW MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRAPPED
BENEATH A LOW LVL INVERSION SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY
AND RESULTING STRATO-CU DOESN'T LOOK TO BE IN ANY HURRY TO MOVE
OUT TONIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SEMO. ANY AREAS THAT SEE CLEARING MAY SEE DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ALBEIT NORTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT, OVERCAST SKIES
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30'S
TO MID 40'S.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WILL SEE AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ALOFT AS A TROF DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES RESULTING IN A
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS RESULTING IN SFC WINDS TURNING TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60'S TO NEAR 70.
LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK, AN ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS. NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIPPING INTO BAJA AND
THEN LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD
THE PLAINS RESULTING IN A DEEP SFC REFLECTION WITH A SFC LOW
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT NEAR AND THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH POPS
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE EVOLVING PATTERN
THAT TAKES SHAPE AS THE AFORMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVING THE EVENTUAL PATTERN WHICH IS REFLECTED IN CLUSTER
ANALYSIS WITH A NOTABLE DIPOLE IN THE H50 HEIGHTS SUGGESTING
NOT ONLY TIMING UNCERTAINTY, BUT ALSO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROF/RIDGE PATTERN. THERE ARE STILL SIGNS OF A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS DIVING OUT OF CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK.
AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL BELOW NORMAL, ALTHOUGH JUST HOW MUCH
BELOW IS STILL IN QUESTION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN
FOG DEVELOPMENT. VSBYS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. LOW MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY SINK BACK SOUTHWEST SOME BY MORNING.
BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST TOMORROW, AS NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY CIGS
WILL SCATTER OUT. COULD TAKE MOST OF THE DAY IN THE KEVV/KOWB
AREAS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AOB 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>110.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...SP
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