106
FXUS63 KPAH 151654
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1054 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI UNTIL 8 AM.
- SEASONALLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK, WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ONSET BY THURSDAY AND
PERSISTING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
A SHARP CLEARING LINE HAS HELPED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, WHERE A FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. WE'LL
CONTINUE WITH ITS HEADLINE FOR THIS WRITING, THOUGH THE FOG IS
SHALLOW AND MIGHT END UP BEING CANCELLED EARLY AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP UPON OUR WEATHER AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY, WITH BOTH RIDGE AXES MOVING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL FACILITATE A COMPLETE CLEAR-OUT OF THE
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS, AS THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROF RESPONSIBLE IS
HEALTHILY EJECTED TO THE EAST. EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF SEASONAL
CHILL BEFORE A MODERATION BEGINS THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED TO BEGIN THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WILL OCCUR DAILY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE INCOMING BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
IS ULTIMATELY BROKEN DOWN AND SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHEN
LARGE SCALE, HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROFING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. THE
STORM SYSTEM'S CENTERS OF LOW PRESSURE REMAIN WELL DISPLACED TO
THE NORTHWEST AS THEY TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS APPEAR A LITTLE SLOW IN
SHRIVELING THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS
APPROACH/PASSAGE DURING THE MID WEEK...INSTABILITY WILL BE FAR
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND WE ANTICIPATE THIS SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION THAT LINGERS ONLY MONDAY EVENING MAY WELL EVENTUALLY BE
REMOVED. IN FACT, WE WON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE POPS CONTRACT AS
WELL, AS THE BEST MOISTURE POOLS WILL BE TO THE NORTH, NEAR THE
LOWS, AND TO THE SOUTH, WITHIN THE BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY. FOR
NOW, WE'LL AWAIT MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR ANY SUCH MOVES
TO MAKE. IRONICALLY, THUNDER MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY, SHOULD THE CENTER OF THE H5 LOW, PROJECTED
TO BE AROUND 538DM AT H5, BARRELS CLOSER TO THE FA INTO CENTRAL
IL.
AFTER THE LOWS MOVE EAST INTO/ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BE SWEPT IN ON ITS BACKSIDE, AND THE RESULT WILL
BE PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES WITH THURSDAY HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50, AND LOWS BACK DOWN IN THE 30S. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LIKE THIS PROJECT ON INTO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST AND
MAY WELL EXTEND INTO THE 8-14 DAY AS THE LONGER RANGE MODELING
MAINTAINS OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP/AMPLIFIED
EASTERN U.S. TROF.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
ONGOING WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE ALONG ITS
WESTERN FRINGES THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AT CGI, PAH, AND MVN. FURTHER EAST,
MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE AT EVV AND OWB. OVERNIGHT, THE
STRATUS WILL EXPAND AGAIN, BRINGING A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS TO ALL
TERMINALS. LIGHT N-NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO THE SE AT 5-10 KTS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS
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