582
FXUS63 KPAH 152326
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
526 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A LINGERING SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
- IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM MUCH ABOVE 50
DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
H5 RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION GOING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH
TONIGHT, A SATURATED BL INVERSION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT FOG IN THE FORECAST BEFORE MIXING OUT DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY, ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
AS WELL, IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT
EASTWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL
GENERATE A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS THAT WILL BRING A RENEWED
CHANCE OF RAIN, WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY LIGHT, MAINLY 0.25-0.50" DURING THIS PERIOD. DEPENDING ON
HOW THESE DISTURBANCES TRACK, SOME THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST, BUT THAT COULD CHANGE
IN THE COMING DAYS.
A TRANSITION TO A MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURE REGIME IS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A RATHER DEEP TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW SETTING UP OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN, LINGERING
WRAPAROUND RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S IN MOST SPOTS, ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH THE HANDLING OF THE MVFR DECK OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION, INCLUDING KEVV AND KOWB. THOSE
TWO SITES SHOULD SEE THE MFVR CEILINGS PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY BEFORE LIFTING/SCATTERING. FARTHER WEST, SOME COMBINATION
OF FOG OR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IS A GOOD BET TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. PLAYED THE MVFR CEILINGS AT KMVN AND KPAH,
BUT PLAYED MORE FOG AT KCGI. HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
BY 18Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DRS
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