984
FXUS63 KPAH 170803
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
203 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING TILL TUESDAY MORNING.
- A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY ALONG WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH. A SECONDARY RIDGE AXIS THEN MOVES OVERHEAD
TOMORROW. THIS LENDS ITSELF TO A WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TODAY AND UPPER
60S TO MID 70S TOMORROW AND TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTS
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVES UP THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY. THE SFC LOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATH AND BRINGS A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL UP TO AROUND 0.25" IN PLACES.
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROF IS A BIGGER LONGWAVE TROF THAT MOVES IN
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SETTLES IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MORE LIGHT RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S, THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
40S TO NEAR 50, AND 40S AND 50S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
ALSO BRINGS BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MORNING WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S
AND 30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS SOME
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY ACROSS SEMO. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS AT KCGI/KPAH WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED
CALM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT & VARIABLE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM, LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS MOST OF THE
CIGS LOW VFR, BUT BRIEF MVFR STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SOUTH
WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS DIMINISH TO 3-5 KTS AFTER SUNSET.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...DW
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