922
FXUS63 KPAH 172302
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
502 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH EVEN FURTHER ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES.
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
- FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE
TRI-STATE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION,
BUT THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS INDICATIVE OF A CHANGE IN THE
NEAR-TERM SYNOPTIC PATTERN. AS A DEEP H5 TROUGH EJECTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY, BRINGING LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES TO
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25-35 MPH. MOST OF
THE AREA WILL STAY DRY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS A DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S (ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE RAIN AND LOW
RESIDENCE TIME OVER ANY ONE LOCATION WILL KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS
LIGHT, MAINLY 0.10-0.25" IN MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A
TRANSITION TO A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DESCEND FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST,
ENSURING CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NAEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES 700 MB
TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO AROUND -10 TO -12C, WHICH IS AROUND THE
10TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL STAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL GIVE AN EXTRA BITE TO THE AIR, AND EARLY MORNING WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING
THANKS TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY OVERNIGHT WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
MAINLY OVER THE EVANSVILLE TRI- STATE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN AREA-WIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
BEGINS TO THE DEPART OF THE EAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 502 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND 4-6 KFT AGL WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS AT KMVN/KCGI CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A
FEW ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, THE GREATER RISK OF RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS ON MONDAY WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DW
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