776
FXUS63 KPAH 181920
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
120 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- A WARM UP WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND, WITH CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
MODELS MOVE A SURFACE LOW INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER
OHIO VALLEYS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PAH FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO
A HALF INCH IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO
AROUND A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PAH FORECAST AREA.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WEDNESDAY.
MODELS GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH THE UPPER TROF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY AROUND AND EAST OF THE LAKES REGION, MAINLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AND THE FORECAST INCLUDES 20-30% CHANCES FOR THESE
AREAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL BUILD
OVER TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY, AND THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
INCREASE WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA, BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER AIR ON
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND BELOW NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WIND
GUSTS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL
GENERALLY REACH 25-30 MPH. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WIND CHILLS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S. IT WILL FINALLY FEEL LIKE FALL.
WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE PAH FA. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER IN OUR VICINITY INTO MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW STARTS MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, RESULTING IN
20-40% CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE RETURN OF SOUTH
WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR AFTER 04Z WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT,
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
06Z-12Z. SOUTH WINDS AT 8-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12-17KTS WITH GUSTS OF 22-28KTS,
DECREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND LOSING THE
GUSTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
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