353
FXUS63 KPAH 201956
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
156 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY, ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WE MAY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA/NORTHWEST
KENTUCKY LATE/SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, COOLING BACK DOWN FOR MID WEEK.
- CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
WITH OUR REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GIVE US GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH, MAINLY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS OF 8-15 MPH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WILL PRODUCE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES, WHICH IS MUCH CHILLIER THAN WE ARE USED TO AS OF LATE.
AS THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST MOVES EAST, MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT, THEN A SECONDARY LOW ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
INITIAL LOW. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAH FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT, PROVIDING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. THE SECONDARY LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND SMALL
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES, LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT,
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE UPPER 30S TO
NEAR 40 DEGREES WILL PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS.
QUIET CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WINDS ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST
AREA BACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S, AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT CLOSER TO OUR NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE 49-54 DEGREE RANGE.
MODELS BRING A SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY.
THIS WILL GIVE US GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT, AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODEL BLEND HAS 20-30% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT SOME
MODELS BUILD HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION FOR THAT TIME PERIOD,
SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WE WILL SEE A COOLING TREND
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH JUST A FEW
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON, AND INCREASING BKN040-060 LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD AT KMVN/KEVV/KOWB. WINDS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AT 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING TO
6-12KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 18KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z
BACK TO 10-20KTS WITH GUST AROUND 25 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
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