735
FXUS63 KPAH 160843
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
243 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
QUAD STATE THROUGH MIDDAY. THE THUNDER COVERAGE AND RAINFALL
INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINS SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST, EVENTUALLY EXITING THE REGION THIS EVENING.
- 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
A CORRIDOR GENERALLY FROM CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS AND THROUGH THE EVANSVILLE INDIANA
AREA. SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THAT
ZONE THIS MORNING. SOME STORMS THIS MORNING MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL, AND THERE REMAINS A VERY SMALL RISK FOR STRONG WINDS OR
A BRIEF TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, MAINLY OVER WEST
KENTUCKY.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE QUAD
STATE, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST.
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVING FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET AND REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS. A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES MAY EVEN RETURN FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 00Z HREF FOR TODAY'S CONVECTIVE/HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT. THROUGH DAYBREAK, A LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI, WHILE A LARGER EAST NORTHEAST TO WEST
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE ZONE OF HEAVIEST
RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM NEAR CAPE GIRARDEAU EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS AND THROUGH THE EVANSVILLE,
HENDERSON, AND OWENSBORO AREAS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND THEN THE BAND WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO
AN END LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
WPC QPF HAS A 1.5-2" BAND OF RAINFALL IN THAT HEAVIEST ZONE, BUT
THE 00Z HREF PMM QPF HAS A BAND OF 2-3" IN THAT SAME AREA, WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR, NUISANCE
FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HILLY TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND THE URBAN AREAS OF EVANSVILLE, HENDERSON, AND
OWENSBORO.
THERE IS PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A DECENT
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SMALL HAIL OUT OF THE STRONGER STORMS. SOME RECENT HRRR RUNS
HAVE DEVELOPED A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION OVER WEST KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED, BUT
IF THERE IS ANY AT ALL, THE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT A QLCS WIND AND TORNADO CONCERN. THIS IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT, BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
THE SHOWERS AND COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION BY 03Z
THIS EVENING, AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY. AN AREA OF
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE QUAD STATE OVERNIGHT,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER WHAT SHOULD
BE VERY WET GROUND. FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD SEEM TO BE A GOOD BET
TONIGHT WHERE SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS ARE CALM. ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG TO THE FORECAST, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG OVER
SOME PORTION OF THE REGION.
TUESDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND CONTINUED MILD, BUT NOT AS WARM AS IT
WILL BE TODAY. HOWEVER, A FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FORCE A WAVE ON THE COLD FRONT, BUT
AT THIS TIME THE BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK INTO OUR
REGION. THIS WILL VIRTUALLY ELIMINATE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL, AND
SHOULD LIMIT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS WELL. FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD GET ANOTHER INCH OR A LITTLE MORE,
BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT TO THE NORTHWEST.
AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER MAY NOT GET MUCH RAINFALL AT
ALL.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO OUR
STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER. A CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL TURN OUR
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY, AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE QUAD STATE. BEHIND IT,AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH
SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED,
FLURRIES WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. THANKFULLY, THERE IS NO SIGN OF
ANY MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.
THE COLDEST AIR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM
WIND CHILLS EARLY SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 12-17F FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 35-40 FROM NORTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY HEADING INTO NEXT MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTH WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AND LEAD TO
A NICE WARM UP. HIGHS MONDAY WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
NORMAL, BUT THE WARM UP IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SIGNS OF MORE RAINFALL TUESDAY/CHRISTMAS
EVE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 436 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
LIKE LAST NIGHT, WE'LL SEE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS RAINS SET
IN OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GO IFR AND VSBYS MVFR, ALSO NOT UNLIKE
LAST NIGHT, WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS POTENTIALLY INDUCING
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS. WHILE THE RAINS DRAW DOWN TMRW WITH
THE SYSTEM'S PASSAGE, LOW CLOUD BASES WILL BE STUBBORN TO
IMPROVE OUT OF RESTRICTED CATEGORIES.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...
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