025
FXUS63 KPAH 162312
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
512 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KY
WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING.
- AFTER A DRY AND MILD TUESDAY, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY.
- DRY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS MORNING'S WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW GRADUALLY EXITING THE REGION
AS OF 19Z MONDAY. THE LAST OF THE RAIN IS LOCATED ACROSS WEST
KY, AND THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL KY AND
MIDDLE TN. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND H5 RIDGING BRIEFLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.
WHERE SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS CALM TONIGHT, SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MO, SOUTHERN, IL, AND FAR WEST KY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 33-41 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD, AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES
FROM THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM 53-58 DEGREES, ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A QUICK-MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE
CIRCULATION ORGANIZING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THROUGH THE REGION, BUT THE HEAVIEST TOTALS WILL BE ALONG THE
KY/TN BORDER AREAS OF WEST KY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
BY THE TIME THE RAIN END WEDNESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER 0.50-0.75"
OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF GOING TO
THE NORTH AND WEST, WITH ONLY 0.10-0.25" FORECAST ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHWEST IN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG I-64
TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE KY/TN BORDERS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A TURN TOWARDS A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS. WHILE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES FOR MID-DECEMBER. AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR -10C, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S IN MOST AREAS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. EARLY MORNING WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS ARE LIKELY AS WELL. THE PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE DRY, THOUGH A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHEAST MAY
BRING SOME FLURRIES TO THE EVANSVILLE TRI- STATE ON FRIDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
RESTRICTED BASES WILL FINALLY SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING, AS A FRONT
COMPLETES PASSAGE AND DRIER AIR WORKS ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN
THE WAKE OF ITS DEPARTURE. WITH WET GROUNDS, IT'S POSSIBLE THE
SCATTERING OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP, SO WE'VE
KEPT THE INHERITED MENTION AND INCLUDED MIFG FOR ITS
POSSIBILITY. TMRW SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN AGAIN
LATE IN THE PLANNING PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM/RAIN
CHANCES.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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