456
FXUS63 KPAH 170845
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
245 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY THE QUAD STATE WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS,
AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE QUAD STATE TONIGHT AND THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY COULD
SEE ANOTHER INCH OF RAINFALL, AND AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE
BORDER COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.
- DRY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A NICE WARM UP IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A MILD
CHRISTMAS LIKELY ACROSS THE QUAD STATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE QUAD STATE VERY MILD
AND DRY TODAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY.
A STRENGTHENING UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL DRAW SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE QUAD STATE AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS WILL BE
MUDDLED, AS A SURFACE LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP AND A CANADIAN
AIRMASS SURGES TOWARD THE REGION. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH AN INCH OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT IN THAT AREA WILL APPROACH 60 DEGREES,
WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY MEAGER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
IF THERE IS ANY TANGIBLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, 0-3KM SHEAR
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A QLCS WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND
TORNADO THREAT. AT THIS TIME, THE POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FULTON TO GREENVILLE KENTUCKY
IN THE 3-7 AM TIME FRAME. THE FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST AND THE RAINS WILL COME TO AN END FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODESTLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY, BUT EVEN COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A FEW
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE COLD AIR ADVERTISED FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS INITIALLY THOUGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20-25F RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS BOTTOMING OUT FROM 15-25 DEGREES EACH
NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOUTH WINDS AND A NICE WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL CHRISTMAS EVE. UNFORTUNATELY, AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME RAIN TO THE QUAD STATE AT
SOME POINT FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MILD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
RESTRICTED BASES WILL FINALLY SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING, AS A FRONT
COMPLETES PASSAGE AND DRIER AIR WORKS ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN
THE WAKE OF ITS DEPARTURE. WITH WET GROUNDS, IT'S POSSIBLE THE
SCATTERING OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP, SO WE'VE
KEPT THE INHERITED MENTION AND INCLUDED MIFG FOR ITS
POSSIBILITY. TMRW SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN AGAIN
LATE IN THE PLANNING PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM/RAIN
CHANCES.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
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