716
FXUS63 KPAH 172128
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
328 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD NUISANCE FLOODING ARE EXPECTED IN
THE FLOOD WATCH.
- THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. A
BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO, ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
- IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER AND DRIER FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS ARE FORECAST.
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS. SMALL RAIN CHANCES RETURN
TO THE FORECAST ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEAR TERM PART OF THE FORECAST, MAINLY FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A POSITIVELY-TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS, A SURFACE LOW WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND PASS
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH KICKS OFF SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE DUE TO THEIR
ELEVATED NATURE, AND THE RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
MANAGEABLE DESPITE THE SATURATED SOILS.
THE BETTER SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING RISKS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY, MOST LIKELY PEAKING DURING THE 09-15Z WINDOW,
THEN DIMINISHING BY 18Z. A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE SEVERE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTHWARDS TOWARDS THE KY/TN BORDER. IF THIS BOUNDARY MAKES
IT NORTH OF THE KY/TN BORDER, THERE WILL BE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF BRIEF, WEAK QLCS TORNADO AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUST RISKS, AS WELL AS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THIS
WOULD BE FOR WEST KY COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE KY/TN BORDER,
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FULTON TO HOPKINSVILLE TO ELKTON
LINE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT THE RISK SEEMS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO CALL OUT IN THE HWO AND SOCIAL MEDIA MESSAGING DESPITE NOT
BEING UNDER A MENTIONABLE SEVERE RISK BY SPC.
THE OTHER RISK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
AND FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL AGAIN BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
KY/TN BORDER, PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN KY PENNYRILE. WITH THESE
AREAS SEEING 2-4" OF RAIN AND WIDESPREAD NUISANCE FLOODING
ISSUES MONDAY, THE RISK OF ANOTHER 1-2" (AND LOCALLY HIGHER)
RAINFALL EVENT CAUSED ENOUGH CONCERN TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FROM
06-18Z WEDNESDAY FOR CALLOWAY, CHRISTIAN, TODD, AND TRIGG
COUNTY IN WEST KY. WHILE THE OFFICIAL QPF HAS MAINLY 1-2" HERE
DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING PERIOD, SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE LIKE
THE 17/12Z HREF IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RAIN (UPWARDS OF 3-4"). IF REALIZED, THIS
WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AT MINIMUM. AS
IT STANDS, THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WILL BE AREAS EXPERIENCING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD NUISANCE FLOODING, WITH ISOLATED MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE RAINFALL WILL EXIT THE
REGION, AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS. THIS WILL BRING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE -5
TO THE -10C RANGE, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S AND
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE TEENS ARE LIKELY AS WELL. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARDS
NORMAL VALUES AS RESULT. IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES,
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD TOWARDS CHRISTMAS EVE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF PAH, AND A PROB30
TSRA GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE 06-12Z WINDOW WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL DECLINE TO IFR OR LIFR VALUES AS WELL UNDER THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. ONGOING LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY VEERING NW AROUND 10
KTS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ009-012-017-022.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
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