772
FXUS63 KPAH 180837
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
237 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A LINE OF STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS
AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH 8 AM. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW BRIEF TORNADOES REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER WEST KENTUCKY. A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH 12 PM TODAY. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD NUISANCE FLOODING ARE EXPECTED IN THE FLOOD WATCH.
- IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER AND DRIER FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS ARE FORECAST.
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OVER
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS. SMALL RAIN CHANCES RETURN
TO THE FORECAST ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
A FAIRLY SOLID CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL REACH SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WEST
KENTUCKY SHORTLY. BASED ON ITS CURRENT PACE, IT WILL CLEAR THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 6 AM. WE HAVE ALREADY GOTTEN A 32KT GUST FROM
KCGI WITH THE LINE, SO THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT IT IS
SURFACE-BASED. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE IS IMPINGING ON
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S, BUT THAT IS LIMITED
TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS THE PURCHASE AREA AND WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE
IT EAST OF THE LAKES. THEREFORE ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO OVER THE PURCHASE AREA. WITH
0-3KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 35KTS FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST, PORTIONS
OF THE LINE THAT ARE ORIENTED MORE NORTH TO SOUTH WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES AT PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
BRIEF TORNADOES.
AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH, THE CURRENT LINE IS MOVING FAST ENOUGH
TO PREVENT ANY OVERLY HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THE CONVECTION OVER ARKANSAS TO LINGER OR TRAIN
OVER THE WATCH AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL KEEP IT GOING,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT LIKELY BE NEEDED PAST 9 AM. THE RAINFALL
SHOULD EXIT THE ENTIRE AREA BY 18Z.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS A
LITTLE MORE BULLISH FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE. A
LIGHT DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING, SO
ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE ON GRASS AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE COLD, BUT NOT
EXTREMELY SO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO THE WIND CHILL WILL NOT BE
TREMENDOUS FACTOR. THE WARMUP IS SET FOR MONDAY THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ON WHEN TO BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION, BUT IT COULD HAPPEN AT ANY POINT
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS. SANTA MAY HAVE A WET RIDE
THROUGH THE QUAD STATE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 445 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE, LOWER, AND THICKEN TONIGHT AS A STORM
SYSTEM MAKES ITS APPROACH. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER THRU RESTRICTED
CATEGORIES AS RAINS SET IN, INCLUDING A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER
THAT IS NOT INCLUDED AT THE TERMINALS AT THIS WRITING.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO MVFR/IFR THRU THE DURATION OF
THE LATE NIGHT, INTO TMRW MORNING, WHICH IS WHEN THE SYSTEM'S
PASSAGE OCCURS. WE'LL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TMRW EVEN AFTER PCPN
CHANCES WIND DOWN, SO RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KYZ009-012-017-022.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...
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