775
FXUS63 KPAH 191129
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
529 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.
- FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EVANSVILLE TRI-
STATE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE LIMITED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES.
- WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER IS FORECAST NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY RAIN
CHANCES, THOUGH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS EVE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST IN SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD
STATE, WHILE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHWESTERLY
PORTIONS OF THE CWA, WITH MOST LOCATIONS EVENTUALLY FALLING TO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CUT ACROSS TO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. SOME MODELS
SHOW ISOLATED FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE EVANSVILLE
TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FORTUNATELY,
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES, PRODUCING LIMITED IMPACTS. BETTER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SYSTEM FRIDAY, BRINGING IN
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH, GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH
DURING THE DAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLEARING DRIVES LOWS DOWN
TO THE LOW TO MID 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD CONDITIONS REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THINGS DRY. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT, PREVENTING WIND CHILLS FROM BECOMING PARTICULARLY
CONCERNING, BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEED ACCOUNTING FOR
WHEN OUTSIDE.
A MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND COMPLEX PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK. EARLY WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP IN THE SOUTHEAST,
AND A SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. GULF
MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THIS SYSTEM AND RAIN IS LIKELY, MAINLY
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. CHRISTMAS DAY RAIN
CHANCES GET MUDDLED AS MODELS TRY AND SORT OUT A POTENTIAL
SMALLER SCALE NORTHERN LOW AND/OR A SOUTHERN UPPER LOW.
ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING SYSTEMS FROM THE WEST KEEP RAIN CHANCES A
FACTOR LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT MODEL VARIATION IN TIMING BLENDS
ALL THESE INTO A BROAD PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ONE AREA
OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES RISING TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR CHRISTMAS, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
VERY LIKELY IN THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE, WHILE MVFR CLOUDS LINGER IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND NEARBY AREAS. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WITH WINDS AROUND 5-7 KTS. A COLD FRONT TONIGHT SHIFTS
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST, BECOMING BREEZY, WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE FLURRIES.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL
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