257
FXUS63 KPAH 192045
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
245 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EVANSVILLE TRI-
STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE LIMITED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES.
- COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER IS FORECAST NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY RAIN
CHANCES, THOUGH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS EVE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGING IS BREAKING DOWN AS AN
UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE BRINGING INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. A FRONT WITH INCREASING CAA BEHIND IT MAY BRING A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS
15-20 MPH AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH. THE CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 30'S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20'S FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
KEEPING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AND DRY WEATHER.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SYSTEMS
LIKELY TO BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER A DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK, A BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR THE QUAD STATE REGION. CHANCES OF RAIN
ENTER THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY AND LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
CHRISTMAS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW PROVIDING FOR ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF RAIN/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEK WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL, INTO THE 50'S BY CHRISTMAS DAY, AND
NEAR 60 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-7 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT BECOMING BREEZY AROUND 10-16KTS. SHALLOW MOISTURE MAY
BRING REDUCTIONS IN CIGS IN THE MORNING. CAN'T RULE OUT FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT BUT NO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
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