248
FXUS63 KPAH 140732
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
132 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC COLD WILL COME WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT'S PASSAGE TODAY. FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR, BUT THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE COLD...WITH SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS AND WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO AGAIN IN THE FAR NORTH.
- THE ARCTIC COLD HOLDS THRU MID WEEK, BUT THEN TEMPERATURES
BEGIN MODERATING THURSDAY, AND TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL MID
JANUARY LEVELS BY THE WEEK'S END.
- A WEEKEND COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE RETURNS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR, BUT IT'S WARM ENOUGH THAT PRIMARY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE RAIN, PERHAPS CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW JUST BEFORE
ENDING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
OUR SYSTEM PACKING ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC COLD IS TAKING SHAPE
AND PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS IA AT THIS WRITING, WITH VSBYS
THERE DOWN TO AROUND 1SM AT TIMES. THE MODELS LOCK ON THIS
SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED ITS TRACK A TAD FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER, DUE
TO LSR'S RUNNING CLOSE TO 20 TO 1, WE DON'T WANT TO DISCOUNT ITS
ABILITY TO OVERPERFORM WITH EVEN 1 ONE HUNDREDTH OF QPF TO WORK
WITH, IF IT MANAGES IT, BC THAT MIGHT PRODUCE UP TO 2 TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF SNOWFALL. WE'LL KEEP OUR SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONS IN
OUR NORTHEAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY BUT REGARDLESS, IT'LL BE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, FLURRIES, OR NOTHING, WITH THE SAME EFFECTS.
THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE COLD...WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
AND WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR NORTH AGAIN TONIGHT.
THE ARCTIC COLD AIR MASS WILL BEGIN MODERATING THURSDAY, AND
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL MID JANUARY LEVELS BY WEEK'S END. THEN
WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE FORECAST PICTURE THIS
WEEKEND, WE'RE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL ITS PASSAGE
BRINGS ANOTHER PUNCH OF ARCTIC COLD. THAT MIGHT CHANGE OVER THE
RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW BUT THE PCPN EFFECTIVELY ENDS AS THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES, WITH JUST LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND AS THE NEW COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN. WE
DROP BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S AND SINGLE DIGIT LOWS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TODAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS APPROACH AND PASSAGE. THERE ARE IFR BASES WITHIN ITS
HEART, WHICH SHOULD PASS TO OUR NORTH. MVFR BASES ARE EXPECTED
HOWEVER, AND THE CHANCE OF IFR BASES HERE, WHILE SLIM, IS NOT
ZERO. MOST LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS, SO WE'LL LEAVE THAT MENTION OUT OF THE CATEGORICAL
FORECAST, BUT WE WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE IT DEVELOP BRIEFLY
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF A KMVN-KEVV-KOWB LINE. WINDS AROUND 10
KTS WILL PICK UP A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT UPON THE SYSTEM'S
APPROACH, THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH ITS PASSAGE. AN
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT WOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED/ATTACHED MAINLY TO THE SYSTEM'S PASSAGE. SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE BACK HALF OF THE FORECAST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE FA IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM'S DEPARTURE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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