158  
FXUS63 KPAH 142347  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
547 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ANOTHER COLD NIGHT BEFORE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH  
FRIDAY.  
 
- RAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A VERY POWERFUL COLD FRONT, WITH WHAT  
MAY BE THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER BEHIND IT.  
 
- POTENTIAL FOR MULTI-DAY EXCEPTIONAL COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S  
AND LOWS NEAR ZERO MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 122 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025  
 
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE  
MEANTIME THOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WESTERLY  
WINDS SEEM TO BE PROVIDING A LITTLE DOWNSLOPE/ADVECTION BASED  
WARMING AS HIGH TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVE A BIT. THE FRONT WILL  
MARCH ON HOWEVER AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT AND  
CHILLY TOMORROW DURING THE DAY. A BIT OF A WARMING TREND WORKS  
IN FOR THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM  
ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.  
 
A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA  
FRIDAY WHILE VERY STRONG RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST  
OF THE US/CANADA AND EVEN INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS SETS UP MID  
AND LOWER LEVEL TRAJECTORIES TO HAND US AN AIRMASS PRETTY MUCH  
STRAIGHT OFF THE NORTH POLE. RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT  
AND THE POSITIONING OF LIFT WITH MOISTURE SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT  
THE EVENT WILL BE ALL RAIN AS THE COLD AIR WILL LAG THE PRECIP  
SUFFICIENTLY.  
 
HOWEVER, DOING A LITTLE BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PUTS  
THAT AIR HEADED THIS WAY AT AROUND 84 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE.  
THE TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT REFLECT SUCH AN ORIGIN. THE  
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS HIGHS 17-24 FOR MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE  
SINGLE DIGITS. NAEFS ANOMALIES PUT THE AIRMASS 2 TO 3 STANDARD  
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH A 10-YEAR RETURN PERIOD. IF THE  
SIGNAL REMAINS THIS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG, AND IT HAS FOR SEVERAL  
RUNS, THE REGION WILL NEED TO PREPARE FOR INFRASTRUCTURE-  
STRAINING COLD FOR 2-3 DAYS. THE STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY MAY PUT US INTO COLD WEATHER HEADLINES AS WELL, DEPENDING  
ON EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT. THE GOOD NEWS AT THIS STAGE IS  
THERE IS NO REAL SIGNALS FOR PRECIP DURING THIS COLD PERIOD WITH  
THE CLOSEST STORM SYSTEM, ON TUE-WED, STILL WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR CALM  
WINDS AT EACH TAF SITE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG IS  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THEN NORTHERN TAF SITES (MVN/EVV/OWB)  
LATE, WHICH MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES AROUND A QUARTER MILE OR  
LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD, WHICH MAY RESULT IN  
FREEZING FOG AS WELL. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR  
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...JGG  
AVIATION...KC  
 
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