311
FXUS63 KPAH 151728
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1128 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK'S END.
- RAIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WITH WHAT
MAY BE THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER BEHIND IT.
- POTENTIAL FOR MULTI-DAY EXCEPTIONAL COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO START THE NEW
WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY
AND INTO APPALACHIA BY TONIGHT. THIS SYNOPTIC SHIFT YIELDS
RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLIES, WHICH HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY; IT'S POSSIBLE SOME WARM ADVECTION
FOG OCCURS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IT'S A
LITTLE EARLY TO PINPOINT. WHILE THIS OCCURS, UPPER HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS THE MID-UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE WHERE PCPN OCCURS,
TRANSITIONING TO RISING HEIGHTS HERE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, HEADING
INTO THURSDAY, ASSISTING THE THERMAL MODERATION THAT ENSUES.
IT'S POSSIBLE A FEW FLURRIES ARE SQUEEZED OUT IN THE TRANSITION
ZONE BUT IT APPEARS THEY'LL STAY JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH/EAST SO
DID NOT INCLUDE THEIR MENTION.
THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY AND MAKES PASSAGE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WE'VE WARMED ENOUGH BY
THEN FOR A PRIMARILY LIQUID EVENT, MAYBE ENDING ON THE BACKSIDE
AS EITHER/OR OR CHANGE-OVER BUT THE PCPN IS EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING
OFF BY THEN SO IT'S INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE BIG PAYLOAD IS THE
EXCEPTIONAL COLD IT DROPS ON TOP OF ALL OF US AS WE BEGIN THE
NEW WEEK. THE NAEFS ESAT KEEPS RUNNING 10 YEAR RETURN INTERVALS
FOR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE NORM TEMPERATURES. THAT
TRANSLATES TO SINGLE DIGIT LOWS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO 20S TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK...WITH MINIMUM APPARENT TEMPS
POTENTIALLY REACHING COLD HEADLINE CRITERIA. REGARDLESS, IT'S IN
LINE TO POTENTIALLY BRING OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WINTER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT SHIFT TO WESTERLY FOR TOMORROW.
BORDERLINE LLWS CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY MVFR CIGS IN THE NORTHEAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...ATL
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