680
FXUS63 KPAH 170527
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1127 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE QUAD STATE WITH SNOW COVER.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL MELT OFF MUCH OF THE
REMAINING SNOW COVER IN THE NORTH.
- RAIN MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
THAT MAY BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER BEHIND IT.
- POTENTIAL FOR MULTI-DAY EXCEPTIONAL COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST ABOVE 10
TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -5 TO
5 EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING LOW
CLOUDS TO AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE QUAD STATE, WITH HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM IOWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED TODAY
DESPITE THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SINCE 500MB HEIGHTS ARE
INCREASING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SNOW COVERED
AREAS HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE MOST SNOW-
FREE AREAS HAVE REACHED THE 50S. A SHIFT TO VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TONIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN PATCHY WARM
ADVECTION FOG OR FREEZING FOG TONIGHT. MODELS ARE WELL-ALIGNED
ON NORTHERN SNOW-COVERED AREAS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING FOG, WITH SOME MODELS DEVELOPING IT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
QUAD STATE.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HELP MELT OFF
MUCH OF THE REMAINING SNOW COVER. CLOUDS MOVE AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM, WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN SEMO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
BECOMES WIDESPREAD FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY
NIGHT, LINGERING INTO SATURDAY IN THE EAST, TOTALING A QUARTER
TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BRINGING ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AMIDST CONUS-WIDE
TROUGHING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID-20S AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST ABOVE 10 DEGREES. WIND CHILLS OF -2 TO
8 DEGREES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH MONDAY
MORNING DROPPING TO -5 TO 5 DEGREES, NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE ARE A COUPLE MODELS SUGGESTING A FEW FLURRIES
SUNDAY BUT SUPPORT IS TOO LIMITED FOR INCLUSION AT THIS STAGE.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS AGREE ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM BUT DIFFER IN TRACK,
BRINGING IT EITHER THROUGH THE QUAD STATE OR TRACKING IT SOUTH
OF THE REGION, WITH THE LATTER CURRENTLY THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD NO FOG TONIGHT, SO REMOVED ALL
MENTION FROM KMVN AND KEVV. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE
MORNING AND GUSTS 20-25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE EVENING, WITH
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. KEPT IT MVFR FOR
NOW, AS IFR IS MOST LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEYOND THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...DRS
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