091
FXUS63 KPAH 181148
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
548 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND MUCH COLDER AIR. DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE, WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING THROUGH THE QUAD STATE
THIS MORNING WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWING
IT. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
MAY BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH.
DEEP TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT LEADING TO SATURATION OF THE
MID AND LOW LEVELS. A FAIR NUMBER OF CMC AND EURO ENSEMBLES SHOW
LIGHT QPF DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE THE GEFS ISN'T AS EXCITED.
THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTENING WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TONIGHT. BELIEVE THE NBM IS TOO LOW
WITH POPS AND DID INCREASE VALUES. IT WILL BE PLENTY COLD FOR
SNOW AND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS THOUGH AT THIS TIME.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEEP
TROUGHING AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION
SUPPORTING A VERY COLD AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
MINUS 20 TO MINUS 25 C RANGE. THIS LEADS TO HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO 20'S AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS. SOME WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -5 TO
5 DEGREES. BY MIDWEEK WE START TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS AS HEIGHTS
RISE AND WINDS TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH LEADING TO INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS DRY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL VEER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT 7-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 23 KTS. RAIN HAS MOSTLY MOVED OUT BUT A REGION
OF LIGHTER RAIN CONTINUES FROM NEAR CGI AND EAST INTO EVV. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
STILL THINK PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON AT THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. LATER TONIGHT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR NOW INTRODUCED
PROB30 GROUPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
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