189
FXUS63 KPAH 152343
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
543 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR, POTENTIALLY HISTORIC, FLASH FLOOD EVENT IS ONGOING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG THE
KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION'S ARE POSSIBLE.
- ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
- DANGEROUS, BITTER COLD IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE
FORECAST THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
A MAJOR FLASH FLOOD EVENT IS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. COOLER CLOUD TOPS AND LIGHTNING HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL ONLY EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES WITH
HEAVIER RAIN RATES AT TIMES. SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY WHERE RADAR AND
GAGE ESTIMATES OF 2-4 INCHES (LOCALLY HIGHER) OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN. GIVEN THE INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THESE
RAIN SHOWERS, CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO WORSEN OVER THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AS A
DANGEROUS AND MAJOR/POTENTIALLY HISTORIC FLASH FLOOD EVENT.
THE THREAT REMAINS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ALL COMES DOWN TO WHETHER WE SEE ANY UPDRAFTS BECOMING
SURFACE BASED. SOME HI-RES SOURCES SUGGEST THIS MAY OCCUR BUT
THE WINDOW LOOKS SMALL AND ONLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM ROUGHLY CALLOWAY TO TODD
COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY. IF WE DO SEE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, A
FEW MESOVORTICIES MAY DEVELOP WITH IN THE MAIN SQUALL LINE, WITH
A LOCALLY ENHANCED STRAIGHT-LINE WIND AND SPIN-UP TORNADO RISK.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR TONIGHT AND SETS THE STAGE FOR A WEEK
LONG PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL ASCENT STILL
LOOKS PRETTY STRONG OVERNIGHT AS A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THIS SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS
THERE IS A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME WHERE THE MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALIGN WELL IN THE DGZ. WE COULD SEE A DUSTING TO 1 INCH OF
SNOW OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS FREEZING.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO FURTHER INCREASE THAT A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE TREND WITH THE NBM AND ENSEMBLES SOLUTIONS HAS
BEEN INCREASING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. NBM PROBABILITY OF
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS NOW 70-90% AND 50-70% CHANCE
OF 4 INCHES OR MORE. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR CHANGES BUT
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY INCREASING THAT IMPACTFUL HEAVY SNOW WILL
ARRIVE TUESDAY PM INTO WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE REGION AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE TEENS TO LOWER
20'S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE. WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO APPEAR LIKELY AS WELL. WHILE WE
SAW SOME OF THESE TEMPERATURES BACK IN JANUARY, ITS POSSIBLE WE
MAY SEE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS IF NOT COLDER THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO IMPACT
TAF SITES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST, WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
TO END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 12 UTC BUT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO VFR AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...DC
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