772
FXUS63 KPAH 160851
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
251 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL PRODUCE QUICK SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL SEE GENERALLY A DUSTING UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW.
- A HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO IMPACT
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- DANGEROUS COLD IS EXPECTED NEARLY ALL THIS WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SUBZERO WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE FORECAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S MAJOR FLASH FLOOD EVENT, WRAPAROUND
DEFORMATION BANDING AND MUCH COLDER THERMAL PROFILES HAVE
ALLOWED FOR BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. TRAVEL
IMPACTS HAVE QUICKLY DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA AS A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THROUGH 14Z HERE, WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR A DUSTING
UP TO 1" ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON HOW THE BANDING EVOLVES, THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD.
THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE QUIET BUT COLD
WEATHER AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S, WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS. MONDAY (WASHINGTON'S BIRTHDAY)
WILL SEE EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
MIDDLE 20S ALONG I-64 TO THE MIDDLE 30S ALONG THE KY/TN AND
MO/AR BORDERS.
THE ANTECEDENT COLD AIRMASS WILL SET THE TABLE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
WINTER STORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS QUITE GOOD AT THIS RANGE, WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THE
LATEST NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVES A 50-90% OF THE REGION
SEEING AT LEAST 4", WITH THIS HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE KENTUCKY
PENNYRILE. IF TRENDS HOLD, A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED FOR MOST OR ALL THE AREA IN THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO.
FOLLOWING THE WINTER STORM, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN
DESCEND INTO THE MIDWEST, AND BITTER COLD CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS
TEMPERATURES 20-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND THE 20S AND 30S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ARE FORECAST IN ADDITION TO
WIND CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE SEVEN
DAY WINDOW, A RETURN OF A MILDER ZONAL PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT 530 UTC. TAFS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM THE WEST TO EAST. LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES AT TAF SITES EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TO THE WEST, EXPECT LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY 8 UTC AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH 10 UTC.
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS.
AFTER 10 UTC CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO IFR AND SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR AFTER
21 UTC ON SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 00 UTC.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
ILZ075>078-080>089-092-093.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>111.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...WFO DVN
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