779
FXUS63 KPAH 170551
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1151 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE
KENTUCKY PURCHASE REGION DUE TO ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES FROM
THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
- CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM TUESDAY
MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW
IN EFFECT. AT LEAST 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.
- DANGEROUS COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL BELOW ZERO DEGREES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
SNOW FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX AT 500 MB WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC WITH DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STRUGGLE TO FULLY
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS, BUT
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. OTHERWISE, FLOODING ISSUES DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS THE KENTUCKY PURCHASE REGION AS
CREEKS, STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE EXTREMELY ELEVATED. LOCATIONS ALONG
THE CLARKS RIVER IN PARTICULAR HAVE EXPERIENCED SOME OF THE
GREATEST IMPACTS DUE TO A RECORD CREST OF 19.23 FT, BREAKING THE
OLD RECORD OF 17.40 FT. FOR THIS REASON, A FLOOD WARNING IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE AFORMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A
1054 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN CANADA QUICKLY BUILDS
NORTH OF THE FA SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM. AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH WPC AND SURROUNDING WFOS, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FROM 09Z TUESDAY MORNING TO 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE
MOST OF THE FA WILL NOT BEGIN TO SEE SNOW UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
MODEL THERMAL PROFILES BECOME SATURATED FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP
EARLIER ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES DUE TO AN AXIS OF MODEST 700 MB
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WAA. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SFC
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST. OVERALL, THE TIMING
REMAINS THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS IT IS POSSIBLE
NOT ENOUGH QPF IS PROGGED ON THE ONSET.
WITH THAT SAID, THE LATEST NBM AND LREF REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI WHERE THE WSSI-P SHOWS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MODERATE
IMPACTS, WHILE AT LEAST MINOR IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FA. THIS IS WHERE AN AXIS OF ROBUST FGEN IN THE DGZ COMBINED
WITH 285K SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 3.0 G/KG WILL SUPPORT A
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES THAT WILL QUICKLY CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT MORE NORTHERN
STREAM INTERACTION WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT EJECTS OUT OF NEW
MEXICO ON TUESDAY, A MORE SUPPRESSED SCENARIO WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL
OVER THE PAH CWA IS FAVORED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
THUNDER SNOW, AS SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY VALUES
AROUND -0.50 PVU BELOW THE DGZ IS TYPICALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR
SOME CSI. COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KT JET STREAK AT 250 MB, CONFIDENCE
OVERALL IS FAIRLY HIGH IN SEEING WARNING CRITERIA SNOW.
WHILE THE OVERALL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS THE MEAN ON THE 13Z NBM
IS CLOSER TO 10 INCHES. GIVEN THAT SLRS AROUND 17:1 TO 20:1
WOULD BE SUPPORTED IN HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW, IT WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON ALL SURFACES. ALTHOUGH SNOW
QUICKLY COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE FA THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. DANGEROUS COLD TEMPERATURES WITH MULTIPLE NIGHTS IN THE
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ARE PROGGED. WEDNESDAY MORNING WIND
CHILLS COULD DIP BELOW ZERO WHILE THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST IMPACTFUL WHEN WIND CHILL VALUES MAY FALL BELOW -10
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE PATTERN TRENDS
MILDER EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO HEIGHT RISES ALOFT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, LEAVING BEHIND VFR
CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR LOW AND MID LEVEL SKY COVER WILL SPREAD
BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK,
THEN BECOME LIGHT NNE ON MONDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ001>022.
UPDATE...RJP
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...RJP
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