141
FXUS63 KPAH 180938
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
338 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MAY PRODUCE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO ONE INCH IN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE WITH SOME SLUSHY ROADS
POSSIBLE.
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT
THE QUAD STATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FLURRIES TO
LIGHT SNOW LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM
WARNING COVERS MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR NORTHERN
ROW OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA
WHICH HAS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO DEGREES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THIS WEEK WITH THE LOWEST WIND CHILL VALUES EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
- EXTENSIVE RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES THIS WEEK, MAINLY ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER AND OTHER RIVERS IN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
A COUPLE BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY SURFACES. WITH
ROADS BEING TREATED IN ADVANCE OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM, ROAD
IMPACTS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GOING TO PRIMARILY TAKE THE FORM
OF SLUSHY UNTREATED ROADS. CAUTION IS NEEDED FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 15Z FOR THIS HAZARD.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO THE PLAINS, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL
ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM THE ROCKIES IS SHOWING PRECIPITATION BETWEEN KANSAS CITY
AND TULSA. A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION BY TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DIVES THROUGH TEXAS AND SETS UP ON THE GULF COAST
TONIGHT. DESPITE BECOMING INCREASING SEPARATED NORTH FROM THE
SURFACE LOW, SOUTHERN MISSOURI HANGS ON TO VERTICAL ASCENT, WITH
MODELS SHOWING FRONTOGENESIS AND A POSITIONING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD WITH QPF AND
SNOWFALL TRENDING LOWER. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THERE WON'T BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL, HOWEVER. SE MISSOURI IS FORECAST TO HAVE 5
TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW, WHILE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE QUAD STATE
COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH BANDING. THE ONE NOTABLY LOWER AREA IS THE I-64 CORRIDOR
WHERE 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE, INCLUDING THE EARLY MORNING
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. WINTER STORM WARNINGS COVER
ALL BUT THE I-64 CORRIDOR WHICH HAS AN ADVISORY INSTEAD.
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLE, SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE AROUND
AN INCH HIGHER ON AVERAGE AND SHIFTED ROUGHLY A ROW OF COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR.
SNOW WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM BEGINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN SEMO,
REACHING THE REST OF THE QUAD STATE LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS INCREASE WITH THE BETTER FORCING THAT MOVES
THROUGH AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING IN THE WEST AND EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE EAST. SNOW RATIOS AROUND 14:1 IN
THE SOUTH AND 18:1 IN THE NORTH WILL YIELD A FLUFFY SNOW,
BOOSTING SNOW TOTALS WITH AN OTHERWISE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
QUARTER TO JUST OVER HALF INCH OF QPF.
FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY, MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE QUAD STATE, ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM
WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS AND THE UPPER LOW REACHES THE MIDWEST. SNOW COVER WILL
FURTHER ENABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S
TODAY FALL TO NEAR 20 ON THURSDAY WITH A MODERATING TREND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
THIS MORNING DROP TO THE LOW TO MID SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH BREEZY WINDS HOLDING ON TO NEAR
10 MPH TONIGHT, WIND CHILLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE ONLY A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
AVERAGE (WHETHER WIND SPEEDS HOLD VS DROPPING OFF MORE WILL BE
KEY AS TO WHETHER AN ADVISORY NEEDS ISSUANCE). COOLER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROP WIND CHILLS EARLY THURSDAY TO
-5 TO -10. WINDS CALM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, KEEPING FRIDAY
MORNING WIND CHILLS MORE IN THE 0 TO 5 RANGE. ENSEMBLES DON'T
ENTIRELY AGREE ON THE FORMATION OF A SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE
ROCKIES EARLY THIS WEEKEND, AND MANY THAT DO TRACK IT SOUTH OF
THE QUAD STATE, SO DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE NBM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION FROM VFR TO MVFR AS CEILINGS LOWER
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING. THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY THE EVENING, LOWERING VISIBILITIES, WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR ILZ075>078.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ILZ080>094.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /1 PM EST/ TODAY TO 9 AM
CST /10 AM EST/ WEDNESDAY FOR INZ081-082.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ085>088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ001>022.
UPDATE...RJP
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...RJP
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