556
FXUS63 KPAH 182333
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
533 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR WINTER STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WINTER
STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
- THERE IS AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO RETURN EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
THAT MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATINGS OF SNOW.
- DANGEROUS COLD TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIND
CHILLS 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
A MAJOR WINTER STORM REMAINS ON TRACK AS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT RAMPS
UP THIS EVENING. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A STRONG SFC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
GOES-16 INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS RAPIDLY COOLING ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI. AN AREA OF 700 MB FGEN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
CAUSING HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW TO DEVELOP WITH SNOWFALL RATES OVER 1
INCH PER HOUR.
AS SNOW BEGINS TO ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, PCPN
WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FA WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK. THE
HREF/NBM REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
BETWEEN 5 TO 9 INCHES OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND 4 TO 7
INCHES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE
ONE CAVEAT IS ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA WHERE A
SHARP GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN ONLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE FROM MESO BANDING TO THE SOUTH. A WINTER STORM WARNING
AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
THE MOST IMPACTFUL AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT WHEN POOR VISIBILITY BELOW 1SM IS LIKELY. MID-LEVEL SATURATED
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXES OUT AROUND 00-03Z WHEN THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH CSI TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDER SNOW ON THE ONSET OF THE
HEAVIER MESO SNOW BANDING. ROBUST OMEGA IN THE DGZ AND A DEEP
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 700-500 MB SUPPORT LARGE DENDRITES WITH
SLRS IN THE 15:1-20:1 RANGE. HOWEVER, ONE LIMITATION WILL BE BREEZY
CONDITIONS THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME FRACTURING. SNOW OBS UPSTREAM HAVE
SUGGESTED LOWER SLRS THAN WHAT IS PROGGED, BUT THIS MAY SIMPLY BE
DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. OVERALL, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS IN SEMO IN PARTICULAR EXCEED 10 INCHES WHERE THE
BEST THERMODYNAMICS COMBINED WITH FORCING WILL BE MAXED OUT. GIVE
THE DRY AND FLUFFY SNOW CHARACTER, EXPECT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS AS SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON ALL
SURFACES.
MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY ON HOW QUICKLY SNOW TAPERS OFF
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLENDS OF THE HRRR/HREF/CONSSHORT HAVE SNOW
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 09-13Z WEDNESDAY. DID BUMP UP POPS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR RETURNING SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW
SATURATED DGZ AROUND 900-850 MB. COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX, THIS IS A CLASSIC SETUP WHERE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO LOW ON THE SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL SNOW WOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF QPF, HIGH
SLRS OVER 20:1 WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER QUICK COATING TO HALF INCH IN A
FEW LOCATIONS.
DANGEROUS COLD TEMPERATURES IS THE OTHER CONCERN THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH OUR WFO NEIGHBORS, A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS WIND CHILLS
ARE PROGGED TO FALL AS LOW AS 5 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILLS DO MODERATE ABOVE 0 ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A 1040 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FA AND ALLOWS FOR MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS A WARMING TREND OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S PROGGED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
WIDESPREAD SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN
STEADY SNOW BUT SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENT. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NE BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 22
KTS AT TIMES. SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND SUNRISE BUT
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ILZ075>078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM
CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ILZ080>094.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM
CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR INZ081-082.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /1 AM EST/ WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO 10 AM CST /11 AM EST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ085>088.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM
CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...AD
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