199
FXUS63 KPAH 191115
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
515 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. WIND
CHILL VALUES NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO -10 TO
-15 TONIGHT FOR THE COLDEST VALUES IN SEVERAL YEARS.
- LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE TRI-STATE
REGION BUT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
UNTIL SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD MODERATE AND HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO 12 MPH ARE RESULTING IN A
LITTLE BIT OF BLOWING SNOW FURTHER REDUCING VISIBILITIES. WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE RUNNING FROM AROUND 0 TO -5 DEGREES. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 2 INCH RANGE IN SWIN TO 4 TO 7
INCHES IN BANDS IN PARTS OF SEMO. THERE ARE A LOT OF SPOTS IN
BETWEEN AND THE DRIFTING OF THE LIGHT CRYSTALLINE SNOW HAS BEEN
HARD TO MEASURE ACCURATELY. THE LEADING EDGE OF LIFT ON
SATELLITE TIMES OUT TO ABOUT DAYBREAK AND GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND WILL LEAVE THE WARNING/ADVISORY AS IT IS. DID
STRETCH THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TO START NOW AS WE ARE BELOW
ZERO ON APPARENT TEMPERATURE. WE WILL WARM UP FOR A LITTLE
TODAY TO "ABOVE ZERO" PERHAPS BUT ITS STILL VERY COLD WEATHER,
SO BE ADVISED. WE DROP TO -10 TO -13 TONIGHT AND MAY END UP IN
EXTREME COLD WARNING TERRITORY, REGARDLESS OF THE SEMANTICS ITS
GOING TO BE DANGEROUSLY COLD. COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT SLICK
ROADWAYS WILL BE QUITE A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL HAZARD.
AN AREA OF ASCENT RIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW SPITS OUT A LITTLE
BIT OF SNOW TONIGHT OVER SWIN AND NW KY. THERE SHOULDN'T BE THAT
MUCH MOISTURE LEFT AND QPFS ARE MEAGER. WE HAVE LESS THAN A HALF
INCH ACCUMULATION IN THE FORECAST AND DON'T THINK WE NEED ANY
SNOW RELATED ADVISORIES FOR THIS ONE RIGHT NOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE WINDS EASE UP AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
OF THIS COLD/DENSE SIBERIAN AIRMASS SITS RIGHT ON TOP OF US.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, A REMAINING SNOW PACK, AND LIGHT WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY WORK TOWARDS OR A LITTLE BELOW ZERO.
500MB HEIGHT RISES FOR FRIDAY PORTENT SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS BUT WE STILL DON'T BREAK ABOVE FREEZING AND SETTLE IN
FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOWS UP IN GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME ALTHOUGH NO
QPF SQUEEZES OUT. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THAT HOWEVER FOR AT
LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE COMING DAYS.
WE STAY IN A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT WE START TO
GET A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WARM UP INTO
THE 50S FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS POSSIBLE BY
DAY 7 BUT THE AIRMASS IS LIKELY NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE ONE WE
ARE DEALING WITH TONIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. SNOW
SHOWERS REMAIN INVOF EVV/OWB/HVC BUT HAVE MOSTLY ENDED FURTHER
WEST. SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE TOO LOW FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.
CEILING WILL BE A BIT BOUNCY BUT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY HIGH MVFR.
GENERALLY LIGHT INTENSITY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITY AMID NORTHWEST WINDS. AN
MVFR CIG IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY BUT MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC BASED ON MODEL TRENDS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
ILZ075>078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
ILZ080>094.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/ THIS
MORNING FOR INZ081-082.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /11 AM EST/ THURSDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
INZ085>088.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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