412
FXUS63 KPAH 191955
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
155 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE RISK FOR FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INCREASES THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. A QUICK COATING TO HALF INCH IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS 8 TO 14
DEGREES BELOW ZERO. SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UNTIL
SATURDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND OCCURS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN LATE ON
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CAUSING AN AREA OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN H5 VORT MAX NOW
DIGGING ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING A GREATER RISK OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS PICK UP A
A QUICK COATING TO PERHAPS NEAR 1 INCH, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I-64 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME GOOD DEPTH TO THE -12 TO -18C DGZ ZONE IN THE LOW-
LEVELS THAT WILL SUPPORT HIGH SLR'S BETWEEN 20:1 TO 25:1 DESPITE
ONLY 0.01 TO 0.03" OF QPF ON THE LATEST HREF.
DANGEROUS COLD AND BRISK TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH H8 TEMPS BELOW -15C. THIS TRANSLATES TO
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS 8 TO 14 BELOW
ZERO AFTER BLENDING THE NBM WITH THE HREF. ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT KEEPS WINDS A BIT ELEVATED TONIGHT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER
STILL AROUND, THE SNOW PACK THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE SHOULD STILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL A BIT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A FEW ISOLATED
LOCATIONS FROM CARTER TO PERRY, MO MAY EVEN NEAR WARNING CRITERIA,
BUT DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A HIGH END COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AFTER
COLLABORATION.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK REMAINS EXTREMELY COLD AS A 1040 MB
CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FA. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY NIGHT; HOWEVER, TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR WIND
CHILLS TO REMAIN ABOVE ZERO INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND, A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
THE 40S ON SUNDAY, 50S ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR 60
DEGREES ON TUESDAY. THIS MEANS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT WFO PAH
WOULD BE OVER 40 DEGREES WARMER NEXT TUESDAY COMPARED TO WHAT IS
PROGGED ON THURSDAY, WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LREF SUPPORTS ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 0.10 INCHES OF QPF. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP PCPN
IN THE FORM OF RAIN. A FEW OUTLIERS ON THE GEFS INCLUDING THE
12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SUPPORT SOME WET
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
DISTURBANCE TOO FAR NORTH AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS
LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SCATTERED OUT AT KMVN/KCGI. HOWEVER, A
WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING MAY INITIALLY CAUSE CLOUDS TO
THICKEN AGAIN, BRINGING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S FOR BRIEF
IFR/MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTLE IN ON
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT A FEW LOW CLOUDS MAY RETURN TOWARDS MID-
MORNING. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /11 AM EST/ THURSDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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