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FXUS63 KPAH 201904
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
104 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR HEADLINE COLD LINGERS ONE MORE NIGHT, WITH SINGLE DIGIT
TO NEAR ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE TO NO WIND.
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND OCCURS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN COMING BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND
CENTER OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. WITH A LITTLE LINGERING SNOW
COVER, TEMPS SHOULD COOL NICELY TONIGHT IN THE DECOUPLED
ENVIRONMENT WITH CLEAR SKIES, SINGLE DIGIT TO NEAR ZERO DEGREE
LOWS ARE POSSIBLE. WHAT SNOW REMAINS MAY INTRODUCE A SLIVER OF A
CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY DAYBREAK FOG, BUT THE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IS STRONG AND THE MODELS SUGGEST WILL WIN OUT. THAT SAID, SOME 3
HOUR GUIDANCE DOES BRING THE TDD SPREADS DOWN TO SUB 5F AT
TIMES, SO WE RETAINED OUR INHERITED PATCHY FOG MENTION BUT DID
NOT ELECT TO BUFF IT UP ANY GIVEN MOST SPREADS REMAIN >5F FOR
THE BULK OF THE NIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST TMRW INTO THE WEEKEND, A WARMUP
ENSUES. IT WON'T REALLY KICK IN THOUGH UNTIL HEIGHTS CAN REBOUND
BETTER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO MAKES
VICINITY WEEKEND PASSAGE. THEIR PASSES WILL BE DRY HERE, AND
AFTER THIS WEEKEND, WE SEE TEMPS MOVE FROM THE 40S TO 50S, WITH
SOME 60 DEGREE HIGHS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH ON DECK FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR JUST AS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN/NEXT
WAVES COMES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS WRITING,
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED, SO THUNDER LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH,
BUT ITS NORTHWARD DRIFT IS WORTH WATCHING WITH THOSE 60F
READINGS POPPING UP AND DEW POINTS THAT PUSH 50F APPROACH OUR
SOUTHERN DOORSTEP DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
THE FORECAST IS INCREASINGLY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED, WHICH
LEADS TO A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. THAT MIGHT SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME FOG, BUT THE DRY AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DRY AIR WINS OUT, SO WE WILL MONITOR
EVENING TRENDS TO DECIDE IF FOG BECOMES A NECESSITY TO MENTION.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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