083
FXUS63 KPAH 250438 AAA
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1138 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE DANGER WILL BE HEIGHTENED TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MO
OZARKS DUE TO DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ENTERS THE FORECAST WITH
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH ITS LIFT WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS, BUT INSTABILITY AND OVERALL MOISTURE BEING MARGINAL
SHOULD LIMIT ANY THUNDER THAT MIGHT ACCOMPANY IT.
AFTER THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN TAKES HOLD FOR A DRY
MIDDLE WEEK. NWLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS SEASONAL TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE
60S THRU THIS PERIOD. HEIGHTS BUILD AND TEMPS WARM LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THAT'S WHEN OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
COMES, WHICH WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM
IS ALREADY IN THE OUTLOOK WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS BUT IT'S FAR ENOUGH OUT FOR NOW TO REMAIN IN MONITOR
MODE. AS WITH MOST SUCH SYSTEMS, IT LOOKS NOW LIKE THE SHEAR
WILL BE THERE, IT'S JUST A MATTER OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
RETURN IN THE RIGHT SPOTS AT THE RIGHT TIMES FOR OUR SVR WX
CHANCES.
AFTER THE WARMUP INTO THE 70S TO END THE WEEK/EXTEND OVER THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM'S PASSAGE SHOULD RETURN DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONALLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE 60S TO BEGIN THE NEW
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2025
HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE AND THEN PREDOMINANTLY OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
AVIATION...JGG
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