960
FXUS63 KPAH 250736
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
236 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
- SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
- INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND.
- THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WILL POSE A SEVERE WEATHER
RISK, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS APPEAR
POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME, INCLUDING TORNADOES, VERY LARGE HAIL,
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH AN ELONGATED VORTICITY MAX GENERATING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHWEST INDIANA AT TIMES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO PLENTIFUL SURFACE LEVEL DRY AIR, THIS RAIN
WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR EVEN JUST SPRINKLES. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY
MEANS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME, WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.
H5 RIDGING WILL INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND A MAJOR
WARMUP WILL COMMENCE. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEEKEND. POPS WILL INCREASE AS WELL
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO AN ORGANIZING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BRING WAA SHOWERS TO THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A PREVIEW OF
MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND POTENTIAL VOLATILE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ABOUT A POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT, ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY. AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED H5 TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LONG FETCH FROM THE GULF WILL
ALLOW ELEVATED MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION, WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FORECAST BY SUNDAY (THIS
IS LIKELY UNDERDONE BY THE NBM). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AS WELL.
THERE MAY BE TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS, AN INITIAL ROUND
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH, AND MORE INTENSE
ROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW AN PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT MAY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. AS IT STANDS, ALL HAZARDS OF
SEVERE WEATHER LOOK POSSIBLE, INCLUDING TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL,
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WE ARE STILL NEARLY A WEEK AWAY, SO
THINGS CAN CHANGE, BUT THIS HAS OUR ATTENTION AND SHOULD BE
FOLLOWED CLOSELY AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. QUIETER AND COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY AFTER THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CLEARS
THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2025
HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE AND THEN PREDOMINANTLY OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, INCLUDING THE MARK TWAIN NATIONAL FORECAST,
AS RH VALUES FALL TO 20-30% AND 20FT WINDS REACH 10 MPH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, SHORT FUELS HERE HAVE BEEN DRY,
WITH MOISTURE VALUES IN THE 7-10% RANGE. SIMILAR RH VALUES AND
FUEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY HERE, BUT WINDS WILL BE A
BIT LIGHTER.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...JGG
FIRE WEATHER...DWS
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