348
FXUS63 KPAH 261736
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1236 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
- WARMING TREND STARTS TOMORROW ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS. A FEW MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE UP NORTH.
- A WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY COULD SEE ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
WE'RE IN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS. DEEP MIXING WILL PROVIDE LOWER DEW POINTS, PARTICULARLY OVER
SEMO, BUT WITH A LACK OF WIND, FIRE DANGER SHOULD BE LESS OF A
CONCERN. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS SET TO LIFT NORTH LAT TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
WE'LL START OFF A WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME OF THESE MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THE
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS WHICH WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WE'LL BE WARM AND BREEZY ON FRIDAY BUT
MOSTLY DRY AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH FROM NORTH DAKOTA. THE
SFC LOW THEN STARTS TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING
BACK RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. BREEZY AGAIN ON
SATURDAY BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM THANKS TO THE RAIN.
AS THE SFC LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MO AND INTO CENTRAL IL ON SUNDAY THIS PUTS OUR REGION INTO
THE OPEN WARM SECTOR WHERE WE'RE PRIMED FOR STORMS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ON SUNDAY. WE'RE OUTLOOKED IN THE
PREVIOUS DAY 6 SPC OUTLOOK (AND LIKELY THE NOW DAY 5 OUTLOOK) FOR A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. FOR SEVERE PARAMETERS WE'RE
LOOKING AT DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S, 1,000-1,800 J/KG OF MUCAPE, 40-
45 KTS OF BULK SHEAR, AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8 DEGC/KM.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME BUT ANALOGS ARE
HINTING AT MORE OF A HAIL CONCERN. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY
AND THERE ARE A FEW FAILURE MODES POSSIBLE.
WE ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER OFF ON MONDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS ON THE HORIZON THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE
SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DISCREPANCIES. EVEN THOUGH NBM HAS
WEAK POPS ON TUESDAY, THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE TUES WILL
ACTUALLY BE DRY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
WARM UP.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
THE TAFS ARE ALMOST VFR. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS. A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 15KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. 10-15KFT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, AND
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM KMVN THROUGH
KEVV AND KOWB. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATEST LATER IN
THE MORNING, WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN THE
LATE MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...DRS/SHAWKEY
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