811
FXUS63 KPAH 262021
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS MAY STREAM SOUTHEAST MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THEY WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- A WET AND POTENTIALLY VOLATILE WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
- NEXT WEEK WILL START OUT COOL AND DRY, BUT ANOTHER QUICK WARM
UP IS IN STORE BY MID-WEEK. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL RETURN AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME INITIAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER
THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE. THERE WILL BE NO INSTABILITY, SO
THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
AS THE WARM ADVECTION FORCING INCREASES THURSDAY, SHOWERS WILL
BECOME NUMEROUS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE GREATEST POPS WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST, AND THE LOWEST POPS
WILL BE OVER THE MOST PARCHED PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE OZARK FOOTHILLS. SOME
LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA COULD
SEE AN INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS,
BUT THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO 500J/KG OR LESS
AND THE SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. THEY CALL IT
MARGINAL FOR A REASON. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT, BUT IT
SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MUCH. IF A STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS, LARGE
HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S, WHICH IS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS SATURDAY
AND THROUGH THE QUAD STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, AS IT WEAKENS AND GETS
ASSIMILATED INTO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL VERY LIMITED, IF NOT NIL, SO THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED, IF ANY DEVELOP. WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK,
SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A CONCERN ON SATURDAY.
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SATURDAY STORM
SYSTEM, COULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON HOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM EVOLVES ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT, IT
LOOKS LIKE A REAL MESS WITH SERIOUS DOUBTS AS TO HOW MUCH
WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION THERE WILL BE. FOR NOW, THE
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE HAS 1000-2000J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE
AND ~40KTS OF SHEAR, SO SEVERE STORMS ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL LAG BEHIND
THE ACTIVE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE STORMS SEEM MOST
LIKELY OVER WEST KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BUT IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AND MAY NOT BECOME CLEAR UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING, AFTER THE WEAKER SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION.
HEADING INTO MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION, BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NEARLY ZONAL. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A DRY AND COOLISH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY IS VERY UNCERTAIN,
AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL IMPACT THE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. IT
APPEARS THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO A NICE WARM UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY, IF WE REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY. HOWEVER, THAT IS IN DOUBT
GIVEN THE NBM'S LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY WHICH ARE IN LINE WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF AND CMC. MEANWHILE THE 12Z GFS IS DRY. IT'LL
LIKELY TAKE A DAY OR TWO FOR A TRUE CONSENSUS TO DEVELOP FOR
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
THE TAFS ARE ALMOST VFR. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS. A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 15KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. 10-15KFT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, AND
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM KMVN THROUGH
KEVV AND KOWB. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATEST LATER IN
THE MORNING, WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN THE
LATE MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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