918   
FXUS63 KPAH 262350  
AFDPAH  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
650 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
  
- A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WELL ABOVE  
  NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.  
  
- A FEW SHOWERS MAY STREAM SOUTHEAST MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE   
  MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THEY WILL BECOME  
  MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST   
  THURSDAY NIGHT.  
  
- A WET AND POTENTIALLY VOLATILE WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH  
  MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.  
  HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO  
  SUNDAY NIGHT.  
  
- NEXT WEEK WILL START OUT COOL AND DRY, BUT ANOTHER QUICK WARM  
  UP IS IN STORE BY MID-WEEK. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS   
  WILL RETURN AS WELL.  
  
  
   
UPDATE  
  
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025  
  
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.  
  
  
   
DISCUSSION  
  
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025  
  
WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME INITIAL SHOWER  
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER  
THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE. THERE WILL BE NO INSTABILITY, SO  
THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.   
  
AS THE WARM ADVECTION FORCING INCREASES THURSDAY, SHOWERS WILL   
BECOME NUMEROUS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.   
THE GREATEST POPS WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST, AND THE LOWEST POPS   
WILL BE OVER THE MOST PARCHED PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.   
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE OZARK FOOTHILLS. SOME   
LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA COULD   
SEE AN INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.   
  
SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER   
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS,   
BUT THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO 500J/KG OR LESS   
AND THE SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. THEY CALL IT   
MARGINAL FOR A REASON. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT, BUT IT   
SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MUCH. IF A STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS, LARGE   
HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.  
  
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER  
70S TO LOWER 80S, WHICH IS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
  
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS SATURDAY  
AND THROUGH THE QUAD STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT  
OF SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, AS IT WEAKENS AND GETS  
ASSIMILATED INTO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A  
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE   
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN  
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED   
INSTABILITY WILL VERY LIMITED, IF NOT NIL, SO THUNDERSTORMS   
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED, IF ANY DEVELOP. WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK,  
SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A CONCERN ON SATURDAY.  
  
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SATURDAY STORM   
SYSTEM, COULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON HOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED   
WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM EVOLVES ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT, IT   
LOOKS LIKE A REAL MESS WITH SERIOUS DOUBTS AS TO HOW MUCH   
WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION THERE WILL BE. FOR NOW, THE   
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE HAS 1000-2000J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE   
AND ~40KTS OF SHEAR, SO SEVERE STORMS ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.   
IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL LAG BEHIND   
THE ACTIVE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE STORMS SEEM MOST   
LIKELY OVER WEST KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BUT IT   
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AND MAY NOT BECOME CLEAR UNTIL   
SUNDAY MORNING, AFTER THE WEAKER SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION.  
  
HEADING INTO MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE  
REGION, BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NEARLY ZONAL. THIS WILL  
LEAD TO A DRY AND COOLISH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A  
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.   
  
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY IS VERY UNCERTAIN,  
AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN  
PACIFIC WHICH WILL IMPACT THE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. IT  
APPEARS THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH BY NEXT  
WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO A NICE WARM UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY  
WEDNESDAY, IF WE REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY. HOWEVER, THAT IS IN DOUBT  
GIVEN THE NBM'S LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY WHICH ARE IN LINE WITH   
THE 12Z ECMWF AND CMC. MEANWHILE THE 12Z GFS IS DRY. IT'LL  
LIKELY TAKE A DAY OR TWO FOR A TRUE CONSENSUS TO DEVELOP FOR  
NEXT WEEK.  
  
  
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/  
  
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025  
  
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS MID  
AND HIGH LAYER CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT  
AND THURSDAY. THE EASTWARD EXTENSION OF A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING  
OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL RESULT IN THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY, PRIMARILY IMPACTING KMVN/KEVV/KOWB.  
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, THE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY  
RESULT IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES. LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER SOUTHEAST BY MORNING, THEN PICK  
UP FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS BY  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
  
  
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
  
  
  
  
  
UPDATE...RJP  
DISCUSSION...DRS  
AVIATION...RJP  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab KY Page

The Nexlab IL Page

The Nexlab IN Page

The Nexlab MO Page

Main Text Page