507
FXUS63 KPAH 271743
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1243 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TODAY WITH CONTINUED WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY UP NORTH, MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL.
- WET WEEKEND WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND
BRINGS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
WARM TODAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
WE'RE IN A WEAK MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. SEVERE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT STRONG WITH ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE,
ONLY 20-25 KTS OF BULK SHEAR, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7
DEGC/KM, AND 50S DEW POINTS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY ELEVATED
STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS A STOUT INVERSION ALONG AND NEAR
THE WARM FRONT. PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 COULD SEE AROUND
0.5"-0.75" OF RAIN.
FRIDAY IS WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND IS
ALSO GOING TO BE RATHER BREEZY WITH A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THEN A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT REJOINS THE SW FLOW ON SATURDAY AND
BRINGS NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THERE IS VERY LIMITED TO NON-
EXISTENT INSTABILITY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED TO NON-
EXISTENT AND THERE IS NO SEVERE THREAT. THERE IS STILL SOME COVERAGE
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND HOW SATURDAY EVOLVES WILL
AFFECT HOW SUNDAY PLAYS OUT.
THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL FAILURE MODES FOR SUNDAY (SUCH AS A CAP
THANKS TO AN EML), BUT THE SEVERE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS DECENT. THERE IS
AROUND 1,000-2,000 J/KG OF MUCAPE, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8
DEGC/KM, 40-50 KTS BULK SHEAR (ALTHOUGH THE BEST SHEAR, CLOSER TO 50
KTS LAGS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY), AND 60S DEW POINTS. WHILE ALL MODES
OF SEVERE ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME, ANALOGS ARE POINTING
TOWARDS MORE HAILER EVENTS. THERE IS ALSO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT TIMING AND COVERAGE OVERALL, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON
WITH EACH MODEL CYCLE. BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE TOTAL
RAINFALL FOR THE QUAD STATE COULD BE AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF.
WE RETURN TO BEING DRY AND COOL ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. TUESDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE DRY AS WE TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT
WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DISCREPANCIES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, BUT PRECIP COULD COME
BACK AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT. IN EACH SCENARIO WEDNESDAY LOOKS
WET. TUESDAY ALSO STARTS A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
THE TAFS ARE VFR. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KMVN, KEVV, AND KOWB WITH SOME
VFR RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE,
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH DRIER FOR TONIGHT, SO THE FORECASTS
ARE DRY THEREAFTER. CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS COULD GUSTS 15-20KTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON AT KCGI AND KPAH. LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT WITH 200/40KTS EXPECTED AT 2KFT AGL.
SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE MORNING AND SUSTAINED
15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KCGI AND
KMVN BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
WAIT UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD FARTHER TO THE EAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...DRS
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