150
FXUS63 KPAH 282343
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
643 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY ACTIVE AND WET WEEK IN STORE FOR THE QUAD STATE.
- SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND THEN COME TO AN END FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.
- A MAJOR SEVERE STORM OUTBREAK IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS
THE QUAD STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
- THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE THE MAJOR CONCERNS LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 202
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING 30-40 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY, DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER WILL EXIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO, MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE. THAT SHOULD BE THE END OF OUR FIRE DANGER FOR A WHILE, AS WE
GO INTO A VERY ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR MORE.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
MEASURABLE RAIN THERE WILL BE, BUT AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL WILL SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT, AND THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION SATURDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MIX IN SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE WE DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. QPF WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AROUND A
HALF INCH. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE QUAD STATE WILL EXPERIENCE
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES,
MAINLY IN THE TIMING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS AND HIGHER END INTENSITIES HAS
INCREASED.
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SUNDAY MORNING, AND THIS WILL PROVIDE A CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
BENEATH THE INVERSION WHICH COULD HINDER HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, THE CAP IS NOT LOOKING AS STRONG AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, SO IF WE DO GET SOME SUNSHINE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM
SECTOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO, AS VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2" IN DIAMETER, AND
STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAVE AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO START OUT SUNDAY MORNING. HOW CLOSE THIS IS
TO THE QUAD STATE WILL DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY THE MAIN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE QUAD STATE. AT THIS TIME, OUR
BEST GUESS IS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT IT COULD BE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
OR SUNDAY.
WHETHER THIS MAIN EVENT IS A SOLID LINE/QLCS WITH EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICIES, OR A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES,
TORNADOES WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN. THE MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
WOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG, LONG TRACK TORNADOES,
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING
WINDS. MEANWHILE THE QLCS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD
WIND DAMAGE AND SOME MORE BRIEF AND ISOLATED TORNADOES, BUT
SOME OF THOSE TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG (EF2+). LARGE HAIL WOULD
STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE LINEAR SCENARIO, ESPECIALLY
EARLY ON OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
THE 12Z NAM SHOWS THE ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER WEST KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO
SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED FLOODING
PROBLEMS, BUT IN GENERAL, THE STORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MOVING TOO FAST TO ALLOW FOR MUCH OF A HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING CONCERN.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL, AND THEN WE WILL WARM UP AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
A CONSENSUS HAS DEVELOPED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AN ACTIVE AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A NEARLY
PARALLEL SURFACE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE 12Z ECENS HAS A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF OVER 4" OF RAIN AND A 50-60% CHANCE OF OVER 8" BY
FRIDAY. OBVIOUSLY, FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL LIKELY
RESULT AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A SEVERE
STORM THREAT WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY, AND POSSIBLY
LATER IN THE WEEK, AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE DECREASING NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
SUSTAINED 5-10KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. KEPT MENTION OF LLWS
TONIGHT GIVEN INCREASED WINDS ALOFT AND DECREASED SFC WINDS.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, MVFR CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO CGI/PAH/EVV DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS 10-15 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOMGE GUSTS UPTOT 20-25 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...AD
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