530
FNUS73 KPAH 161409
FWSPAH
SPOT FORECAST FOR OATSVILLE RX FIRE...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
909 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON APRIL 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND DEEP MIXING WILL YIELD FAIR
DISPERSION ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL.
DESPITE LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS ON THURSDAY, STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD DISPERSION. RH VALUES ARE LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE CHANCE
OF A WETTING RAIN WILL BE LOW TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A MUCH
GREATER RISK ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHEN THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........58 AT IGNITION...MAX 66.
RH..................44 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH AT
IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON,
THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6300 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /28300 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD
/64700 KNOT-FT/.
TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR PC PC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............58 61 63 65 66 66 66
RH..............44 35 32 29 28 30 30
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW W
20 FT WIND SPD..3 5 6 6 6 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.8 10 12 12 10 9 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.1 4.9 5.7 5.9 6.3 6.2 5.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW W
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 13 13 13 12 9 9
VRATE KT-FT/1K..28 54 63 65 63 50 46
VENTRATE CAT....PR FR GD GD GD FR FR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49.
RH..................MAX 71 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH AFTER
3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 3
TO 12 MPH, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 13
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1600 KNOT-FT).
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......PC PC PC PC PC MC PC MC MC MC MC MC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............65 62 58 54 53 52 50 50 50 50 49 49
RH..............33 43 49 57 61 61 66 68 68 68 71 71
20 FT WIND DIR..W S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..3 2 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 6 6 7
20 FT WIND GUST.6 3 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.W S SE SE SE S SE S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 3 5 6 7 8 9 8 9 10 12 13
VRATE KT-FT/1K..13 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 4 4 5 5
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 44 PERCENT IN THE
MORNING, THEN DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 65.
RH..................MIN 58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 22 MPH INCREASING TO 24 TO 29 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (62300 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC PC
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 40 40 40 40 40 40 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............49 50 51 53 56 58 59 60 62 63 65 65
RH..............71 71 71 71 66 64 67 67 62 60 58 58
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE S S S S S S SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..7 8 9 9 10 10 12 14 15 15 17 16
20 FT WIND GUST.13 14 16 18 20 20 21 24 24 24 26 28
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 14 15 16 16 20 21 22 24 28 29 26
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 6 9 12 15 23 28 31 43 57 62 47
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR GD FR
FORECASTER...SHAWKEY
REQUESTED BY...HEATH HAMILTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2510634.0/PAH
.DELDT 04/16/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL HEATH_HAMILTON@FWS.GOV
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