266
FXUS63 KPAH 212331
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
631 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARMING TREND FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING BEING
THE MAIN CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
GENERALLY EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE QUAD STATE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.
THE NEXT TIME PERIOD OF MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA. WARM MOIST AIR WILL FLOW NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
AHEAD OF AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ALOFT, SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OR JUST NORTH OF THE QUAD STATE, EACH
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG; HOWEVER, SHEAR VALUES
ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE AROUND 20 TO 25KTS. THIS SUGGESTS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL
TOTALS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT) ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A HALF INCH UP TO AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80.
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STAY IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CALM OVERNIGHT. THIS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY
RESULT IN SOME GROUND FOG AT TIMES. EXPECTING MORE CLEAR SKIES
ON TUESDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...AD
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