549
FXUS63 KPAH 222107
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
407 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN AGAIN MONDAY
ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEST CHANCES ARE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. QUASI ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL KEEP US HIGH AND
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES
THROUGH BRINGING BACK SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. INSTABILITY IS AROUND
1,000-1,500 J/KG OF MUCAPE BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK, AROUND
15-20 KTS. THIS MEANS SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN HAVE A BRIEF COOL
DOWN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
TRANQUIL FLIGHT WEATHER IS IN TOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS RIDGED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THRU THE PERIOD.
VFR DIURNAL CU AND HIGH CIRRUS MAY PROVIDE FEW-SCT BASES AT
TIMES OTHERWISE AS LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS TMRW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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