842
FXUS63 KPAH 231017
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
517 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, FOLLOWED BY EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BE 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST RISK OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WILL
BE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHEN A BRIEF ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING
WITH QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURNING RISK
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE NBM HOLDS OFF 30-40% POPS UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON AS THE DAY OVERALL WILL STILL FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF
DRY WEATHER. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING
TREND TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING 80 DEGREES.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH GREATER RISK OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS STILL MEAGER AROUND 20 KTS, BUT
1000-1500 J/KG OF 0-1KM MLCAPE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH
DEWPOINTS PEAKING AROUND 66-68 DEGF IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH
THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE STILL NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT, ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A BRIEF ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPS ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH SFC-3KM
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM, SUPPORTING A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND
RISK. PWAT'S AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL ALSO SUPPORT TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS THAT CAN LEAD TO SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS. QPF ON BOTH THE
GEFS/ENS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER IN RECENT RUNS WITH ONLY 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES PROGGED NORTH ALONG I-64 AND UPWARDS 0.50 TO 0.75 SOUTH
NEAR THE TN/AR BORDER. LOCALLY UP TO 1.0 INCHES REMAINS POSSIBLE
WITH A 30-40% PROBABILITY ON THE NBM.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF
COOL DOWN AS A 1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES, SUPPRESSING ADDITIONAL LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY AND LOW TO MID 70S ON SATURDAY. A WARMING
TREND THEN BEGINS ON SUNDAY WHEN A 500 MB LOW OVER THE SW CONUS
ALLOWS FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE AMPLIFICATION WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING
OVER THE FA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NBM HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S. WHILE DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
CONTINUE, A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BRINING MORE ROBUST SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES. BOTH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY POTENTIALLY LOOK TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT WILL BE CONTINGENT ON
TIMING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
FEW-SCT CU AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN
LIGHT FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 4-6 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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